On election day, 1,000 short-term OPORA observers will be involved in a parallel vote count, which will make it possible to publish information on the winners by the morning after voting day with a margin of error of 2.61%. The parallel count will be representative across Ukraine but will not reflect the voting results in individual regions.

Financing of candidates' election campaigns

The Ukrainian Presidential election campaign will become one of the most expensive in history. About 1.5 billion hryvnias will be spent from the state budget alone on preparation for and conduct of the elections. Calculating the cost of each candidate's campaign will be difficult in perspective. Election funds have not yet been formed, and such expenditure items as conducting pre-election agitation and maintaining staff workers have been financed on a significant scale since the beginning of the summer period.

From October 19 until the moment of official registration of candidates and their payment of the monetary deposit, all agitation activity becomes outside the law. Whether this will affect the reduction of television advertising, billboards, and agitation tents on the streets of Ukrainian populated areas can be determined over the next week.

As for accounting for the financing of election staffs and their fields of activity, two main sources of funding should be taken into account here: the national level and local resources. Candidates who do not aspire to make it to the second round will try, thanks to the presidential race, to increase their level of recognition and voter trust for the prospect of subsequent local and parliamentary elections. This motivates local business to invest in the current campaign with the prospect of receiving dividends based on the results of subsequent ones. That is why the remuneration of staff workers of one and the same candidate in different regions varies by several times. Quite often this does not depend directly on the projected rating of electoral support, but to a greater extent on the interest and financial capacity of local business.

The remuneration of the head of Viktor Yanukovych's regional election staff ranges from 15 thousand hryvnias in the East to 4 thousand dollars in the West; the deputy's — from 10 thousand hryvnias (East) to 3 thousand US dollars (West); the press secretary's rate — 3-5 thousand hryvnias. The work of an agitator ranges from 80-100 hryvnias per day on average across Ukraine to 150 hryvnias in Donetsk and Cherkasy oblasts and 35 hryvnias per hour in the Kharkiv region; agitators in districts are paid within 500 hryvnias per month.

The financing of Yulia Tymoshenko's election staff heads at the regional level is even more differentiated. For example, in Kirovohrad oblast the head of a regional-level staff unit receives 6 thousand hryvnias, while the deputy head in Zhytomyr — 15,000 hryvnias (his colleagues in Kirovohrad, Luhansk, and Kharkiv oblasts receive from 4 to 6 thousand hryvnias). The average pay for an agitator from candidate Tymoshenko's staff across Ukraine is 100 hryvnias, but a monthly form of remuneration is also common: from 500 hryvnias (Kharkiv) to 800 hryvnias (Zaporizhzhia).

Arseniy Yatsenyuk's staff is distinguished by being divided into a public civic staff and a technological one. The public staff of "Front of Changes" performs representative functions (press conferences, round tables, meetings with voters), and is responsible for outdoor advertising and agitation materials on the ground. The technological staff is responsible for the organizational component (recruitment of members of district and precinct election commissions, observers), logistical support and placement of agitation tents, and distribution of printed materials. Local business is most involved in financing A. Yatsenyuk's staffs compared to other candidates, and its representatives quite often head them. In addition, businessmen also ensure the collection of funds in the regions to finance the campaign at the national level. The remuneration of the head of the technological staff on both sides of the Dnipro equals 20,000 hryvnias (recorded in Lutsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Rivne), the deputy's — from 8,000 hryvnias in Vinnytsia to 18,000 hryvnias in Zhytomyr (the average rate across Ukraine ranges within 14-16 thousand hryvnias). The most expensive agitators work in Kryvyi Rih (150 hryvnias/day), while on average for an eight-hour workday one can receive 80-100 hryvnias.

Viktor Yushchenko's staffs are mostly headed by party functionaries, so they do not receive a separate salary (Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv oblasts). In addition, the number of staff units compared to other candidates is quite small. The most expensive work of agitators in support of the incumbent President was valued in Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Ternopil oblasts — 120-150 hryvnias/day.

Candidates who actively conduct an agitation campaign on par with the race leaders but have a lower level of voter support on the eve of the official start of the campaign differ little in the amounts of financing of staff units. In particular, Volodymyr Lytvyn and Oleh Tyahnybok have secured organizational support from party cells on the ground and estimate the work of the leadership level at up to 7 thousand hryvnias. The situation with the method of forming Serhiy Tihipko's staffs is somewhat different, as they have not yet deployed their activities in all regions. The creation of staffs takes place on the basis of the "TAS" group using organizational and human resources; heads of district branches of the institution automatically become heads of district staffs. The head of the regional-level staff receives on average up to 12,000 hryvnias across Ukraine; the lowest pay was recorded in Chernihiv oblast — 800 US dollars. An ordinary agitator receives up to 150 hryvnias/day. The staffs of candidate Anatoliy Hrytsenko have not yet deployed their activities.

The main threats to citizens' free expression of will come from the voters themselves

The OPORA Civil Network forecasts that a number of candidates may use various methods and forms of voter bribery. The main factors that will potentially influence indiscriminateness regarding candidates are:

- The absence, in citizens' opinion, of a direct connection between the President and the personal well-being of each voter;

- The economic and financial crisis, which significantly affected the decline in the standard of living in Ukraine and the growth of unemployment;

- The general apathy of voters toward political processes and disillusionment with the contemporary political elite.

Therefore, perceiving these elections as a banal vote, a significant portion of citizens may agree to sell their vote, provided that mass bribery is organized. This problem may prove most relevant for small populated areas, where the level of citizens' incomes and employment opportunities under crisis conditions are significantly lower than in regional centers. At the same time, the principle of mutual responsibility (residents know each other personally and will not disseminate information about facts and schemes of bribery) will have a significant impact on the detection, prevention, and punishment of organized bribery.

Participants in the event:

Olha Aivazovska — coordinator of election programs of the OPORA Civic Movement;

Yuriy Lisovskyi — coordinator of the long-term observers network of the OPORA Civic Movement.

For detailed information, contact:

063 617 97 50