The results of the study were presented on October 20 at the Intermedia Consulting information agency by Olha Aivazovska, chair of the board of the OPORA Civil Network, and Iryna Bekeshkina, director of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. The survey was conducted from October 3 to 15, 2010. A total of 2,011 respondents were surveyed using a sample representative of the adult population of Ukraine; the sampling error does not exceed 2.1%.

Willingness to take part in the elections So, according to the results of the study, 47% of those surveyed intend to take part in the elections to local authorities on October 31 «definitely» and another 29% – «most likely». The main motive for participating in the elections is a sense of one's civic duty (43% of respondents). Second in importance is the fear that, in the event of non-participation in the elections, someone else might use this vote. This pushes 37% of potential voters to vote.

Expectations of falsifications Only 8.5% of the population are confident that the elections will be honest, without falsifications. A significant portion of those surveyed believe that there will be isolated violations, but they will not significantly affect the overall result (37%). At the same time, the larger part of the population expects serious violations (30% assume that the results may be distorted, and 14% are certain that everything will definitely be rigged). The share of those who not only expect falsifications but are also ready to take part in them is growing. Thus, to the question: «Are you ready to sell your vote for money?» in 2009, 9.5% of those surveyed answered «yes». In 2010, the number of those willing to sell their vote for various reasons had already grown to 12.6% of respondents. Respondents named the following as reasons why Ukrainian voters are ready to sell their votes:  «greed: people strive to make money on everything» (15.5% of those surveyed),  «a difficult financial situation» (42.3% of those surveyed),  «because they are indifferent to all candidates, why not make some money?» (34.6%). To the question: «For what sum are you ready to sell your vote?», 73.2% of those surveyed answered: «My vote is not for sale in principle». But those who do not disdain this type of earnings were divided into the following groups: «for 50 hryvnias» – 0.5%, for 101-200 hryvnias – 3.2%, for 301-500 hryvnias – 4.2%. 14.3% of those surveyed are ready to make a deal for more than 500 hryvnias.

Disillusionment and disappointment A notable fact: against the background of high fears regarding possible falsifications, people's social pessimism also grows from election to election. Thus, to the question: «Do you think the elections will help improve the situation in your city (village)?» in 2006, 36% of those surveyed answered: «the elections will change nothing». In 2007, this answer option was supported by 40%, and in 2010 the number of pessimists had already increased to 45%. This growth of apathy is explained, in particular, by the fact that voters do not believe in candidates fulfilling their promises. Only 2% of those surveyed believe that all the pre-election promises made by candidates will be fulfilled, and only 20% of respondents believe that most promises will be fulfilled. The overwhelming majority of those surveyed think that either an insignificant part of the promises will be fulfilled (42%) or nothing of what was promised will be fulfilled (27%). Moreover, compared with 2006, distrust of candidates' words has only grown. The negative assessment of the activities of local politicians is reinforced by the closed nature of the work of mayors and deputies. For example, only 12% of citizens are familiar with mayors' reports to the public during the inter-election period, another 40% have heard that such reports existed but know little about them, and in the opinion of 49%, there were no such reports at all. Even fewer citizens are familiar with the reports of local council deputies – 7% of citizens, another 40% think that such reports existed but they do not know about them, and 53% believe that there were no reports at all.

Long-term public monitoring However, despite the fact that citizens do not trust politicians and are certain of falsifications, they are still ready to come to the polling stations, since the majority still shares democratic values and is not ready for the usurpation of their rights by the authorities. The majority of those surveyed are convinced that democracy is the most desirable type of state system for Ukraine (47%), 19% showed adherence to an authoritarian regime, for 16% the type of regime in the country does not matter, and 18% were unable to give a definite answer. In order to increase the responsibility of politicians to voters at the local level, OPORA is conducting a long-term public monitoring campaign. Its goal is an independent study of community needs and discussion of the results with candidates and political parties, and the collection of clear promises from future people's representatives. The project began with the start of the elections and will end with an assessment of the work of the first 100 days of the newly elected council and mayor in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Lutsk, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kremenchuk, Sumy, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, and Kherson. To the residents of these cities, OPORA provides an opportunity to address candidates directly. Thus, the organization held 15 video sessions during which members of territorial communities reported on which biggest problems prevent cities from developing and which tasks are top priorities for the newly elected authorities. The videos with the appeals will be passed on to the candidates for review. OPORA is currently awaiting responses from the candidates' headquarters. OPORA also invited the candidates themselves to determine the rating of priority tasks for the mayor and local council, to specify a work plan in the event of victory in the elections in the socio-economic and humanitarian spheres, and to assess the quality of their own programs. Thus, thanks to OPORA's mediation, an «Election Program through the Eyes of the Community» will be formed between voters and candidates. Before the end of the election campaign, OPORA plans to hold 30 debates with the participation of contenders for the post of mayor and candidates for deputies of local councils. Until March 31, 2011, OPORA will carry out comprehensive monitoring of the quality of work and openness of mayors and councils. Activists will track whether the authorities adhere to their own promises and whether they implement the measures the community expected. In addition, OPORA is ready to provide intellectual and public support for local reforms that have a chance of being initiated during the first 100 days after the elections.

For interviews or comments, please contact: Olha AIVAZOVSKA, Chair of the Board of the OPORA Civil Network, a.olja@opora.org.ua, +38 063 617 97 50 Dmytro HNAP, Press Secretary of the OPORA Civil Network, info.opora@gmail.com, +38 067 629 51 34