They have already begun — starting with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Although there are rumors that fundamental changes will take place primarily in Western Ukraine. The first swallow — Viktor Baloha — has already left... Although until the very last moment he assured everyone that he would stay... Who is next?
The "Orange" officials face a dilemma — either to survive themselves or to "pull" their region out of catastrophe. Using the example of Volyn RSA Head Volodymyr Bondar, one can forecast at least three paths for all the governors of the state...
Epigraph: folk classic
"A new official received three envelopes from his predecessor with the words: 'When things get bad, open the first envelope — and it will get easier. When things get tight again — open the second envelope — and again it will get easier. When for the third time it becomes hard — open the third envelope...'"
When the first difficult situation arose — the official opened the first envelope: "Blame everything on your predecessor." He did just that. And indeed, everything at work became easier...
When it became hard again, the official opened the second envelope: "Blame your subordinates..." He began — and again everything got sorted out...
When for the third time it became hard, the official opened the third envelope: "Write three letters to your successor..."
The third envelope of power
The classic scheme in the current historical period stipulates, among other things already publicly mentioned, the following problems of power: a progressing socio-economic catastrophe, deliberate destabilization of the economic system, cooling from foreign investors, a crisis of governance, a crisis of identity, a crisis of perspective...
Volodymyr Bondar, like most "Orange" governors, had to face the prospects described from the very beginning, since, by force of circumstance, it was they who, by and large, created them. At least, they were interested in this in their careers. So — the cards are in their hands: you spun it yourself, you sort it out...
The first and second problems, albeit belatedly, have been resolved. The third problem — western and eastern investments — even under the best possible conditions in Volyn cannot be resolved, since the instability of power in Ukraine is the main obstacle for foreign investors. Therefore, the investments planned for this year ($70 million) will not jump above the already received 13...
The fourth problem: the "second envelope of power" — is already being implemented. At one of the September meetings, the governor accused his close ally from the Orange Revolution, former head of the Volyn Farmers' Association Bohdan Prus, of behaving improperly at official meetings... The latter indeed, not understanding why the former "boss" doesn't see the real "deliveries" from the capital, took out his anger on him, stood up and slammed the door...
As for the fifth — identification — Volodymyr Bondar, despite all the information voiced by the authorities, is not a professional revolutionary, let alone an outsider of the previous government... Once, in his young promising years, he even was awarded the Order "For Merit" III degree from the "father" of the current President Viktor Yushchenko — Leonid Kuchma (I apologize for the pun, but the order — from Kuchma, and the governor's post — from his Yushchenko). Well, such things happen when it comes to father and son...
In my opinion, Mr. Bondar rather belongs to the "Great Khoruzhivka" (the President's godfathers, relatives, fellow villagers, etc.), albeit indirectly. Once he supposedly shielded the future President from a knife with his body, which is why he remains in his position, despite numerous rumors about his resignation.
As for the prospects of his further path, this is the main subject of reflection...
Scenario 1: The Statesman
Volodymyr Bondar's desire to solve all issues at once played a big joke on him: he was "thrown" onto a not very conspicuous but important path for Ukraine — the border with Poland. He was supposed to clean out, by and large, the "Augean stables" of the Ukrainian border with the European Union. Moreover — to solve the problems of a depressed region. The notorious "Volyn Klondike" is worth not agreeing to the post of RSA head. But he agreed...
He tried to solve all issues with "revolutionary" methods, but... "the law is above all." He got rid of an inconvenient prosecutor — easing his career growth: former Volyn prosecutor Andriy Hil, under "Orange" pickets of "Pora," moved to a considerably more respectable position of prosecutor of Zhytomyr Oblast. Farther from Bondar — closer to the capital...
Mr. Bondar was forced to bring into the executive branch primarily not "lovey-dovey" revolutionary cadres, but real personnel managers who know and are able to do the relevant work. That is precisely why his "stable" included economist-scholar Vasyl Baitsym (VO "Batkivshchyna"), agrarian Vitaliy Zaremba (People's Party), respected physician Volodymyr Karpuk (an almost apolitical specialist, already under Mr. Bondar's rule — head of the Volyn regional organization of NSHU). By and large, these are professionals, people in their places, if one takes Volyn into account...
Bondar did not "give up" any of them, although there were repeated "attacks." Moreover — he fully trusts them and even sometimes does not allow himself to interfere in their work. He is confident that work in these directions will be done, and in this he is mostly absolutely right...
The governor's too-frequent trips to Kyiv are conditioned primarily by instability in the state. It is practically impossible to independently resolve any of the most painful issues of the region without consultations with the capital. But he, it must be acknowledged, does try to do so.
The change of the regional prosecutor, "policeman," tax officials and customs officers — is his achievement and, at the same time, a problem. Because instead of them, mostly incoming leaders were appointed to these positions. And in Volyn, "Varangians" are not liked...
He, Volodymyr Bondar, took too much, truly in a revolutionary way, upon himself and his team. But people always value what is "in their pocket," not the macroeconomic indicators touted in the media.
With all the twists and turns in Kyiv, President Yushchenko is unlikely to find a better envoy in Volyn — from a statesman's perspective. Therefore Volodymyr Bondar will continue to work in this position — by the principle: "They won't live to see it!"
The probability of this scenario is estimated at up to 35 percent.
Scenario 2: Wherever God (the President) sends...
Of course, the President, having expressed all his negativity according to the "official's parable" on his closest allies, embracing Yanukovych and giving all the gains of the "Orange Revolution" to former "Kuchmists," may quite realistically "give up" his fellow combatants. In particular, the governors as well...
In this regard, as Volodymyr Bondar himself has repeatedly stated ("Whatever the President says — that's what I'll do!"), he will certainly submit to the President's decision. The question is different — will Mr. Bondar in such a case really submit to the President's whims?
Here the problems are — not only with the President, not only with who is currently managing him. The problem is also that Volodymyr Bondar is truly a personality who is used to always having his own opinion on everything. Even if it is absolutely opposite to the opinion of the official authorities. But — always closer to the people who walk around him on the streets of Lutsk...
The problem is also that Mr. Bondar is too radical for his current position, which places him within limited frameworks. He loves power, but he also loves the "Maidan" space for power, which in recent years was given to him by the opposition region. Who knows whether he will want to get rid of this space if the Lutsk Maidan thinks differently from official Kyiv?
Therefore the probability of this scenario is up to 15 percent.
Scenario 3: The Return of the Revolutionary
Volodymyr Bondar always tried to play ahead of the curve. The economic crisis in Ukraine, which most analysts forecast by the end of the year — a reduction in real incomes of the majority of the population, inflation, rising tariffs, etc. — also necessitates a third path for the Volyn governor — a return to a more natural environment for himself — opposition to the authorities. True, by rather winding paths...
It is worth recalling that Bondar came to his parliamentary seat and governorship from the Rukh (PRP) — the party of Pynzenyk, Teriokhin, Soboliev... The latter two are now in opposition to Yushchenko, and some uncertain appointment of Pynzenyk as minister in the Yekhanurov government threatens the former with losing not only leadership in the party but also his party card...
Even despite joining the "party of power" NSHU, Volodymyr Bondar not only preserved old ties with the leaders of "Ripka" but also far-sightedly contributed to "saving face" before former party colleagues. In Volyn, the PRP was headed by Oleksandr Martyniuk — his longtime ally and "right hand" in political affairs. Governor Bondar took him in — moreover, to one of the most influential positions in the RSA — to head the department of internal policy, public relations and media. Therefore, according to the rules of "politics of interests," the Volyn governor's membership in NSHU will not be any obstacle on the path to a new "Maidan." Rather the opposite — an advantage...
At the same time, this will give him the opportunity to no longer justify himself before the Volyn leader of the "regionalists" — Anatoliy Horbatiuk. Despite Yushchenko's "embraces" with Yanukovych, Bondar is unlikely to want to repeat his President, in whom he "boundlessly believes"...
In addition, the opposition will allow activating the resource of the local "Batkivshchyna." It is no secret that its regional head is now clearly looking for strong allies against the "internal fronde" — the Lutsk city organization, which has recently strengthened so much that at the nearest regional conference it is capable of replacing him by a simple majority of votes. They say he is ready to "sell himself" even to strangers rather than his own...
And Lytvyn's People's Party is not at all foreign to Mr. Bondar. "Successful businessman" Ihor Yeremeyev, now head of the NPU in parliament and Lytvyn's deputy in the party, is a longtime colleague in parliament and, they say, the main sponsor of the parliamentary election campaign of the "successful politician," and now Volyn governor Volodymyr Bondar. The "people's party members'" presence in the "YULIA" bloc — Yushchenko, Lytvyn, Yanukovych — is only a matter of time...
As for his own political resources, Volodymyr Bondar can fully count on the support of the PRP (Oleksandr Martyniuk), "Pora" (former head of the PRP youth organization Anton Sosnovsky), NRU (now deputy head of the Volyn Regional Council Volodymyr Banada), NSHU (RSA deputy head Volodymyr Karpuk).
The probability of this scenario is estimated at up to 40 percent.
Afterword: folk reality
Time decides much, but it does not solve the problem of the soul. And even more so — the problem of the region, and even more so — the problems of ordinary people. What decision today's Volyn governor will make in his own political, state and spiritual position — time will tell.
But if one weighs all the "before" options, a fourth path may also be found. Although its probability is purely theoretical. But be that as it may, for most Volyn residents the question of choosing the current governor stands primarily on one plane: what will this give to the Volyn region?