1 – 10 November 2005, specialists of the Volyn Oblast Branch of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, with the assistance of the Volyn Regional Fund for Investment and Development, conducted a survey of experts, the purpose of which was to determine an assessment of the results of the activities of politicians and political party cells in the oblast, and opinion on issues related to the socio-political situation in the region in the context of the start of the election campaign. This survey is the next step in the implementation of the project "Expert View".

The participants in the program were 20 experts representing individual regional mass media, specialists of Lesya Ukrainka Volyn State University, and representatives of non-governmental organizations in the region. Wishing to avoid tendentious survey results, the list included experts who do not work for one or another political force.

The experts were asked to evaluate the results of the activities of oblast cells of political parties, public-political and state figures in June-October 2005 on a ten-point scale.

On the basis of the survey results, corresponding ratings were compiled, according to which the Ukrainian People's Party and the party "People's Union 'Our Ukraine'" shared first and second places in the rating with an average score of 5.9. The next rating arrangement of the assessment of the results of political parties is as follows: the All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshchyna" and the People's Party of Ukraine shared 3rd-4th place (average score - 5.3), the Party "Pora" – 5th place (average score – 4.2), the Socialist Party of Ukraine – 6th place (average score - 3.4), the Party of Regions – 7th place (average score - 3.2), the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) – 8th place (average score – 2.8), the Party "Reforms and Order" – 9th place (average score – 2.7), the Political Party "Svoboda" – 10th place (average score – 2.3), the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists – 11th place (average score - 2.3), the People's Movement of Ukraine – 12th place (average score – 2.2), the Communist Party of Ukraine – 13th place (average score – 2.2), the Ukrainian Republican Party "Sobor" (URP "Sobor") – 14th place (average score – 2.1), the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Ukraine – 15th place (average score – 1.8), the People's Democratic Party – 16th place (average score – 1.7), the Party of Greens of Ukraine – 17th place (average score – 1.4), the Political Party "Trudova Ukraina" – 18th place (average score – 1.3), the Republican Party of Ukraine (included in the list by experts) – 19th place (average score – 0.2).

The first five, according to the results of the expert assessment of the activities of public-political and state figures of the oblast for the period (June-October 2005), were: head of the Volyn Oblast State Administration Volodymyr Bondar (average score – 6.8), Lutsk city mayor Anton Kryvytskyi (average score – 6.6), head of the Volyn Oblast Council Vasyl Dmytruk (average score – 6.1), People's Deputy of Ukraine (NPU, district No. 23) Ihor Yeremieiev (average score – 5.8), deputy head of the OSA Volodymyr Karpuk (average score – 5.2). The next rating arrangement according to the results of the expert survey looks as follows: People's Deputy of Ukraine (UNP) Borys Zahreva – 6th place (average score – 4.9), People's Deputy of Ukraine (BYuT) Yevhen Kyrylchuk – 7th place (average score – 4.8), Ambassador of Ukraine to Lithuania Borys Klimchuk – 8th place (average score – 3.1), People's Deputy of Ukraine (NPU) Kateryna Vashchuk – 9th place (average score – 2.9), People's Deputy of Ukraine (district No. 19) Serhii Slabenko – 10th place (average score – 2.7), People's Deputy of Ukraine (KPU) Stanislav Phydenko – 11th place (average score – 2), People's Deputy of Ukraine Serhii Shevchuk – 12th place (average score – 1.9), head of the oblast organization "Batkivshchyna" Mykola Potapchuk – 13th place (average score – 1.8), head of the oblast organization of KUN Oleh Maksymovych – 14th place (average score – 1.6), People's Deputy of Ukraine Mykola Martynenko (district No. 19) – 15th place (average score – 1.6), deputy head of the oblast state administration Bohdan Shyba – 17th place (average score – 0.4), deputy of the Lutsk City Council Anton Sosnovskyi – 18th place (average score – 0.4).

The most resonant events during June-October 2005, according to experts, were the change of leadership of the oblast's security structures, the change of the head of the oblast cell of the VOO "Batkivshchyna" and problems within the party; also among the events that influenced the socio-political situation in the region were named the conflict between Volodymyr Bondar and Bohdan Prus, the elections of the rector of VDU, UNP actions, the conflict between the oblast and Lutsk city prosecutors, and disputes of the factional corps of the Lutsk City Council regarding the dismissal of the head of the housing and communal services department Tetiana Semeniuk from her position.

Experts were also asked to answer the question: "In your view, has the electoral situation in the region changed since the 2004 presidential elections, and if it has changed, what specifically do these changes consist of?"

Answering this question, all experts noted that the electoral situation has either "significantly changed" or "partially changed" (50% for each of the specified options), which indicates significant changes in the preferences of Volyn voters. The main reasons for the changes, experts name disappointment in the new government and the split of the "orange team". As a result, Viktor Yushchenko and the pro-government party NSNU are losing electoral support, while Yulia Tymoshenko and the party "Batkivshchyna" are actively accumulating this electorate. Also, according to experts, the rating of the People's Party is increasing. Ex-pro-government and left-wing parties in the oblast traditionally have low ratings.

Among the most important problems that will arise during the pre-election campaign for the pro-government parties in our region, experts highlighted: failure to fulfill Maidan promises and, as a result, disappointment of the population; growing confrontation in the once united "orange camp"; rising prices and inflation; corruption scandals; internal struggle for places on the lists and for positions in the event of a future victory; use of administrative resources; low authority of the leaders of local party organizations; and housing and communal services tariffs.

Instead, opposition parties, in turn, according to experts, will have the following problems: the traditional unpopularity of the left and "former" in the oblast; sins of the past; lack of charismatic leaders; lack of coordination of actions; pressure from authorities.

It is also worth noting that one part of the experts attributed the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc to the pro-government forces, and the other to the opposition, which indicates the absence of a clear positioning of the bloc.

To the question of whether administrative resources will be used during the 2006 election campaign, 80% of experts gave an affirmative answer, 15% – found it difficult to decide, and only 5% believe that administrative resources will not be used. Among the organizations and institutions where it may be used, experts named: raion state administrations (50%), oblast state administration (45%), public organizations (40%), city councils (25%), and 20% each were received by communal enterprises, commercial structures, and raion councils.

Indicative is the fact that all 100% of experts are certain of the use of "dirty" technologies during the 2006 election campaign; however, 35% believe that this will not prevent honest and transparent elections in the region. Instead, 40% believe that the elections will not be transparent or democratic, 25% – found it difficult to decide.

Press service of the Volyn Branch of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine