Practically all internal and external participants in the struggle for Ukrainian power have chosen the tactic of deepening the political crisis \n \nThe self-organization of each convocation of the Verkhovna Rada was accompanied by an exhausting speakership saga. The parliament of the fifth convocation not only continued the tradition. However, an innovation was also the maximum uncertainty and uncontrollability of the process, which threatens not just a period of instability, but also the beginning of a real split in the country \n \nMoroz clung to the speaker's chair \n \nThe socialists had been priming the public for their main demarche for several days. First, the SPU provided a list of complaints about the coalition agreement of the "orange" forces, expressed doubt about the necessity of holding the "Sea Breeze" exercises, and, finally, demanded the resignation of Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko, on whom they piled all responsibility for the situation in Feodosia. \n \nOn the morning of June 7, the first secretary of the SPU's political council, Yosyp Vinskyi, made a statement after which it became clear what this party activity was being demonstrated for. He stated that the socialists would not sign the coalition agreement if they were not given the speaker's chair. Negotiations on forming a majority again reached a dead end. "Our Ukraine" categorically opposed Oleksandr Moroz's speakership, considering this seat its own (by the way, earlier the SPU together with the BYuT themselves had proposed the concept of portfolio distribution, according to which the position of parliament chairman should go to the force that took 2nd place in the elections among the coalition participants, i.e., NU). The result — the VR session was again postponed for a week. \n \nAgainst the backdrop of Moroz beginning his own uncompromising struggle for the parliamentary podium, his already small faction is being covered by increasingly noticeable cracks. Operation "Speaker" is accompanied by Vinskyi's group, which does not disdain recommendations from partners in the BYuT, and it certainly numerically surpasses the group of supporters of a "broad" coalition. Moreover, the adherent of seeking compromise with the "Donetsk" people, Mykola Rudkovskyi, even received a party reprimand — formally, however, for a different reason (at the political council, the question of expelling him from the SPU ranks for refusing the mayoral seat in Chernihiv was raised for the second time). But a third wing has appeared in the party faction, ready to surrender Moroz's speakership if Yuriy Lutsenko remains in the post of Interior Minister. And according to preliminary data, there are about 10 such people among the socialist deputies. \n \n \nBYuT: course toward re-elections \n \nYuliya Tymoshenko, skillfully maintaining the cohesion of her bloc's ranks, not only achieved "Our Ukraine's" agreement to her premiership, but also continues to insist on Moroz's candidacy for the role of VR chairman. In principle, the BYuT could support the speakership of the same Yuriy Yekhanurov or even Petro Poroshenko, but in that case the socialists would be offended, which, in turn, threaten to derail the next vote for Tymoshenko as premier. However, "Poroshenko's people" could also derail such a vote (together with those personally offended at Yuliya Volodymyrivna, there will be more than two dozen of them in the NU faction). \n \nBYuT has another reason to firmly insist on Moroz's speakership. If, of course, "Our Ukraine" members do not oppose this equally firmly. A general uncompromising position around San Sanych's political appetite will only increase the VR's movement toward paralysis, and, consequently, toward the dissolution of parliament. Sources of "k:" in Tymoshenko's bloc claim that the leaders of the bloc have recently been increasingly leaning toward the re-election scenario long calculated by the BYuT. The necessary personnel in local councils have already been placed, and a new parliamentary epic is capable of expanding the faction's deputy corps at the expense of part of the NU and SPU electorate. \n\nThe "Moroz game" also brought Tymoshenko a small but very important victory. Viktor Yushchenko has reconciled himself with her principle of distributing positions according to election results. Moreover, the President has not simply reconciled himself — he now recommends strictly adhering to precisely this concept. \n \nThe decapitated NU went adrift \n\nAt the climax of the great portfolio trading, the "Our Ukraine" faction found itself the most unbalanced. It turned out that there was simply no one to present a consolidated position of the bloc at the most responsible moment. Yushchenko is present at the coalition negotiations exclusively as Head of State and arbiter. The faction is officially headed by Roman Bezsmertnyi, who has absolutely no influence on his comrades. Yekhanurov leads his own game, and the party groups of the NRU, URP "Sobor" and CDU are pushed to the backyard of all processes. \n\nThe Poroshenko–Martynenko group stands apart. The latter harbors a grievance against Yushchenko for his removal from the faction leadership and the promotion of Bezsmertnyi to this position, who decides nothing. At the same time, Viktor Andriyovych himself has withdrawn from direct control over the bloc, which loudly proclaims its pro-government nature everywhere. Yushchenko actually has no plan for arranging not only the parliament but also "his" faction. However, the problem is also that no one among his people is in a hurry to come to him with this plan. What the President and the discordant party of power are absolutely united on is the desire to drag out the process as much as possible. And to wait for everything — including the format of the coalition, the speakership, the premiership, etc. — to resolve itself at the last moment, and, of course, in their favor. \n\nConsiderable dexterity in the complex political game was demonstrated by NU neophyte Anatoliy Kinakh. Unexpectedly for his comrades in his own faction, he found himself at the head of the table of the inter-factional (read regional) association "Stability in Ukraine." And although, according to Kinakh, the association simply "intends to pragmatically cooperate with the President and the future coalition government to maximally direct efforts toward stabilizing the situation in the country," the ears of the "Party of Regions" openly stick out from behind this club of big businessmen. Perhaps this is a probing of the ground for the "escape" of Anatoliy Kyrylovych and his associates into the camp of the "Donetsk" people. By the way, the friend of all motorists, "BYuT member" Tariel Vasadze, has also signed up for "Stability in Ukraine." \n \n \nThe "Regions" play along, flirt, and play \n\nThe "Party of Regions" this Tuesday could have disrupted the vote on extending the break in the VR session, but decided to play along with "Our Ukraine," imitating a feeble attempt to block the presidium. Dragging out the process is no less beneficial for the PR than for "Our Ukraine" members. If the "orange" coalition had been finally formalized on June 7, the "regionalists" would have had to resign themselves to the role of opposition. For now, they have a chance to ride into power, and the renewed pause can only help them in this. \n\nOf course, they will not manage to hastily assemble an alternative majority — the "regionalists" together with the communists number 206 people in parliament, but this issue can be worked on, especially if chaos reigns around and there is discord and hesitation in some factions. And the price of the question is only 20 deputies. Earlier, Yuliya Tymoshenko already stated that some members of her faction had received attractive offers from the "Donetsk" people, and the idea of an inter-factional association headed by Kinakh could also prove quite fruitful (it is only not entirely clear for whom Anatoliy Kyrylovych will become a "Trojan horse"). \n\nIn parallel, the PR is ready to play along with the BYuT in the early elections scenario. The "regionalists" are confident that in the event of re-elections they will at minimum retain the same representative composition, and may even increase the size of their faction. If the vote is indeed scheduled, there is an idea to simultaneously hold a series of regional consultative referendums in the "white-blue" belt on the issues of the Russian language and NATO. They will have no legal significance, but politically they are extremely beneficial for the PR. \n\nIn the event of re-elections, the party will continue to inflame the situation along the West–East line and will play the card of the country's split to the end, and then in the new configuration of the VR the "regions" will agree to a compromise, the price of which will be the objective necessity of sharing power with them. In this game, they have already let the genie out of the bottle called separatism. This direction in the work of the "regionalists" remains a priority; Yushchenko's threats of criminal cases no longer frighten them, so one can assume that considerable forces and funds of the "Party of Regions" will still be invested in the "separatist cause." \n\nExternal forces bet on war \n\nSeparatist sentiments in Ukraine are being revived with total support from Russia. In fact, Moscow has returned to the format of direct interference in the country's affairs, which it was forced to abandon after the "orange revolution." The role of provocateur has again been assigned to the State Duma, which ceaselessly churns out anti-Ukrainian statements. The Kremlin failed to make Ukraine a buffer zone between itself and the West, but now it is trying to build such a zone on part of Ukrainian territory, moreover, primarily with the hands of Ukrainians themselves. So far Russia is quite successfully manipulating the public opinion of part of our citizens, and a "gas" whip is already ready for official Kyiv. \n\nWashington is no less aggressively disposed than the White Stone. US State Department analysts do not believe in the reality of the scenario of Ukraine's split, therefore they believe that the time has come to finally tear it away from Russia. It is no secret that one of the main tasks of the new US ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor, is to ensure our country's accession to NATO in the near future. It is also known that Mr. Taylor has considerable experience working in Afghanistan and Iraq, so the White House is probably still considering various scenarios for the development of events. A visit by George Bush to Kyiv is planned in a month, and by his arrival American diplomats must prepare some real results of their recent activities. \n \n