Impostor?

Viktor Yanukovych today is on the path to losing the status of "single candidate." After the parliamentary-government coalition fell apart, it is difficult to say which forces he is a candidate from for the post of president. Viktor Fedorovych, in fact, today represents either the Cabinet of Ministers or the Party of Regions. \n \n \nPrologue \nGiving an interview to "Epitsentr," Leonid Kuchma compared Volodymyr Lytvyn to the main hero of "The Diamond Arm." Meanwhile, these analogies today are appropriate with respect to a completely different politician. True, in a different context. There is even a joke on this topic. "Yanukovych stepped on a broken egg. Slipped. Fell. Came to. Yushchenko is president." \n \nParliament's games \nThey say Leonid Kuchma gathered representatives of factions and deputy groups of the parliamentary majority at his place on September 20. They say, among other things, he was dissatisfied with how the single candidate's campaign was going. \n \nIn fact, it is worth asking the question: is there even a single candidate at all? If part of the factions of the parliamentary-government coalition does not vote for the very bills of the Cabinet of Ministers? Moreover – the prime minister's faction "Regions of Ukraine"? \n \nSince the opening of the sixth session of the Verkhovna Rada, we have observed two processes connected with the parliamentary majority. First – its collapse. After the factions of NAPU, "Deminitiatives," and "Center" announced their exit or suspension of membership in the parliamentary majority. Each for its own reasons, which, generally speaking, have already been analyzed repeatedly. A sort of demonstrative demarche. It is difficult to say whether Volodymyr Lytvyn had the goal of "torpedoing" the political reform. Even given his current behavior – in the best traditions of democracy and parliamentarism – it is unlikely that in such serious decisions as political reform the speaker is absolutely (or simply) independent of the President. In exactly the same way, it is unlikely that Volodymyr Mykhailovych can influence the position of people like Volkov and the Derkaches, who did not vote on April 8. However, an indirect consequence of the majority's collapse is that the political reform will not be put to a vote. \n \nThe second process is the formation of an anti-majority within the majority itself. In fact, from the moment when the factions of SDPU(o), "Labor Ukraine," "Union," and "Regions of Ukraine" announced that they would not vote at all until the presidential elections. Moreover – committees whose leadership includes representatives of these factions are not working. Motivating this by the fact that before the elections the Verkhovna Rada will not be able to adopt any positive decisions, and the parliamentary rostrum is used only to discredit the image of the single candidate from the authorities, Yanukovych, and to promote his main rival Yushchenko. At the same time, to Oleksandr Zadorozhny's question about why the majority factions do not vote for socio-economic laws, the president's representative in parliament replied: "I don't think they are that important in the situation that has developed in the hall." \n \nLytvyn vs Medvedchuk \nLytvyn names as the main reasons for the current situation in parliament "attempts by certain forces to show who controls parliament, as well as the fact that parliament is incapacitated." This is an old story about the struggle for influence over parliament between Medvedchuk and Lytvyn. When for any action of the head of the Presidential Administration regarding parliament the speaker proposes a counter-action. And vice versa. \n \nIn this sense, the motivation of both politicians is entirely understandable. The speaker today is trying to separate parliament from the majority, proving that the Verkhovna Rada can and should work during the election period. And not only as an outside observer. This concerns both the necessary changes to the Law on Presidential Elections (in particular, the clause on observers) and, on the whole, the Commission for Monitoring the Presidential Elections, which, according to its head Volodymyr Lytvyn, "will work until October 31 in any weather." In a word, the speaker is trying to transform the role of a guest, who after the elections may become undesirable, into the role of master of parliament. \n\nMedvedchuk, in turn, cannot calmly watch as other political forces grow stronger, while the political future of SDPU(o) is not so optimistic. First, the Verkhovna Rada is becoming a real center of power together with Lytvyn. Second, the political reform ended with proportional elections (this again relates to the question of who gets the dividends). Third, it is still a question which of the candidates – Yushchenko or Yanukovych – is more acceptable to them. Hence – the need to somehow change the rules of the game, including by closing parliament for the election period. \n\nTwice not single \nUnder Yanukovych's premiership, the parliamentary majority first fell apart in 2002. I mean the vote on the budget, which was preceded by the failure to redistribute committees in favor of the "Bolsheviks." Then not all majority factions (in particular, SDPU(o)) voted for the budget, while the opposition factions, on the contrary, supported the main financial document. \n\nTrue, at that time such a situation suited many. Including the "Donetsk" people. For the pro-presidential factions it saved them from control by the Presidential Administration; for the opposition it gave the opportunity to somehow influence the decisions of the pro-presidential forces (while it also retained opposition rhetoric). For Yanukovych – the opportunity to count on more than 226 votes. \n\nNow the situation is somewhat different. Viktor Yanukovych is not only the prime minister but also the single candidate from the pro-government forces that are part of the parliamentary-government coalition. \n\nFor Yanukovych, the collapse of the majority is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the "Donetsk" people are interested in its collapse. Since this removes responsibility from them for the passage of political reform. This is called "torpedoing" it with someone else's hands. \n\nBut on the other hand – it allows part of the majority to "jump off" the topic of the single candidate. In fact, Viktor Yanukovych did not become a presidential candidate from the parliamentary majority because he did not see interest in consolidating it. Since consolidation would have had to be done primarily under the political reform. \n\nYanukovych's current tactics are approximately as follows – distancing from political activity connected with the Verkhovna Rada, focusing on rating growth thanks to the position of prime minister. At the same time, remaining the single candidate from the pro-government forces that are part of the parliamentary-government coalition. But the thing is that the coalition itself does not exist. Whom does Yanukovych represent if the most powerful factions of the remnants of the majority have announced that they will not participate in the work of the Verkhovna Rada until the elections? According to Oleksandr Volkov, "the factions that today do not participate in voting harm, first of all, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, and not parliament." \n\nIn the first case (the exit of NAPU, "Center," and part of NDP from the parliamentary majority) the majority is being brought down for one reason. In the second (the strike of SDPU(o), "TU," RU," "Union") – for another. But the result is the same – it plays against candidate Yanukovych. \n\nFrom the single candidate from the authorities to the single candidate from Donetsk Oblast \nHere we return to the question of nominating Yanukovych as a presidential candidate. He did not go as an independent candidate. Nor did he become a genuine leader for the pro-government forces. Many "Bolsheviks" generally learned from the media that he had been nominated as a candidate from the majority. \n\nYanukovych was declared a candidate from the pro-government forces, but was nominated only by the Party of Regions. Thus, as the same Volkov says, "Viktor Fedorovych was hung with the negative ratings of Kuchma and Medvedchuk, which exceed 50%." At the same time, the majority parties bear no responsibility for the campaign. And, consequently, at any moment they can motivate their non-support of Yanukovych as a candidate by anything they like. The collapse of the work of the parliamentary-government coalition already shows that politically there is no such support. \n\nViktor Yanukovych, in fact, today represents either the Cabinet of Ministers or the Party of Regions. If he suddenly takes offense at everyone and decides to become independent of the authorities (a softer option – he listens to Serhiy Tihipko's advice and goes on vacation for the election period), then he will generally represent only the Party of Regions. And, consequently, he will no longer be able to be considered a nationwide candidate. The position of prime minister is the only resource that allows Yanukovych to remain a politician of the all-Ukrainian level. Since, in the event of being deprived of the post of prime minister, his positions will depend on which opinion about him prevails in each of the political groups. What it is, we see from the situation in parliament. Then one can speak of the forecasts of some observers that closer to the elections Yanukovych will become the single candidate from Donetsk Oblast. \n\nEpilogue \nProbably many know the fable about Buridan's ass. It is about how the sage Buridan had a donkey. Very smart. One that was not accustomed to beginning any actions without first answering his own questions. Once he found himself before a dilemma – which of two bundles of hay to choose. So he stood hungry and pondered until he died of hunger... \n\n... The events taking place in parliament do not at all reflect a struggle between the authorities and the opposition, more precisely, between Yanukovych and Yushchenko. Actually, the opposition has nothing to do with the collapse of the majority. There are far more contradictions between allies or like-minded people within both camps. The leader of "NU" today is, rather, in conflict with Moroz. The leader of the Party of Regions is slowly but surely losing the title of "single candidate." At the same time, attempts to destabilize the work of parliament show that a pre-election campaign is being waged against Yushchenko and Yanukovych. At the same time, if for Yushchenko's allies, in particular the right-wing opposition, he is simultaneously a means and an end. Roughly speaking, a number of politicians are trying to restore their positions with Yushchenko's help. Then for the pro-government forces, Viktor Yanukovych is, rather, a means for achieving the various goals of various players. For some the goal is to remain an informal arbiter, for others – to prevent Yushchenko, for others – to get any president, but a weakened one, for others – to keep a post after the elections, for others – to play at public politics.