The beginning of autumn turned out to be extremely hot in Ukrainian politics. Over 9 months of work of the new government team, in addition to achievements, deep differences in views on economic and political processes on the part of the main political players also surfaced. The main problems of the government team's work concerned: - privatization and re-privatization processes around metallurgical giants (redistribution of ownership); - the future pre-election coalition of the government team; - populism in the statements of government officials against the backdrop of economic problems; - the permanent conflict between the head of government and the secretary of the NSDC; - the lack of trust between the key players of the President's team.

The first consequence of these events was the resignation of State Secretary of Ukraine Oleksandr Zinchenko and his accusations against the President's inner circle – NSDC Secretary Petro Poroshenko, First Assistant to the President Oleksandr Tretyakov, and the head of the "Our Ukraine" faction in parliament Mykola Martynenko – of corrupt actions. Such a statement quickly stirred up Ukrainian politics, forced Viktor Yushchenko once again to restore order in his own team, and caused an ambiguous reaction abroad. The continuation was to be the announced resignation in the morning of Vice Prime Minister for Humanitarian Affairs Mykola Tomenko, who accused the President's entourage of the same sins as Zinchenko, as well as of these politicians and parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn obstructing the investigation of the Gongadze case. The President's statement, which came 2 hours later, gives grounds to assume that Tomenko was one of those persons regarding whom an agreement had been reached the previous night on dismissal from the government side in exchange for the resignation of NSDC Secretary Petro Poroshenko.

The next step, which was to be expected but one did not want to believe, was the statement of President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko about the resignation of all key players. The President's press conference was broadcast live on television and it was noticeable that the decision was very difficult for Viktor Yushchenko and that he made it independently after long and fruitless consultations with all sides of the conflict. In our opinion, the President, as the guarantor of the Constitution, made a paternally correct and fair decision by dismissing the entire government, the NSDC secretary, and suspending his assistant Oleksandr Tretyakov from work due to lack of trust in the team, populism, and the inability to solve complex economic problems. The fate of Prosecutor General Sviatoslav Piskun and SBU head Oleksandr Turchynov remained an open question. The President instructed Yuriy Yekhanurov to form the next composition of the government, and even earlier appointed Oleh Rybachuk as state secretary – people whom he personally trusts.

Now let us try to briefly analyze the latest events and give a forecast of further developments. Undoubtedly, the President's step is justified and will be a good lesson for all actors, who, we are confident, do not intend to leave politics. He showed that it is he who cares about the interests of the people, and not of his entourage. The format of the pre-election government coalition remains in question. Let us try to give a bold forecast that all political forces that were and will be represented in the government, with the exception of the socialists, have a chance to create a single pre-election bloc headed by the new prime minister and Yulia Tymoshenko. Another option could be the creation of two blocs – BYuT-PRP-Pora and NSNU-NRU-UNP-PPPU. Almost all representatives of the previous government have a chance to end up in the new government, with the exception of the most "eloquent": Tymoshenko, Tomenko, Teriokhin, Chervonenko, Baranivsky. It is obvious that Rybachuk, who has been appointed state secretary, will not be in the government. The government will be formed not on the quota principle from representatives of political parties, but from individuals who can clearly solve the assigned tasks, as well as individuals whom the President unquestionably trusts. The next government will be the government of President Yushchenko. But it is not excluded that parliament will try to slow down this process and again turn everything into a "scramble" for positions. For the position of NSDC secretary, the most logical candidate is former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anatoliy Hrytsenko – rumors about the possibility of such an appointment had been circulating for a long time. Although it is not excluded that this position will be taken by Roman Bezsmertny, the same Oleksandr Zinchenko, or even Yulia Tymoshenko.

Should we expect changes in the gubernatorial corps? Probably yes, but insignificant. The heads of Donetsk and Rivne oblasts are currently in a rather difficult situation. The head of the Volyn Oblast State Administration, Volodymyr Bondar, and his team are not threatened with resignation, although political forces that consider themselves deprived of positions in the region are inspired by large-scale changes in the capital and will try to rock the chair under Mr. Bondar. Changes in the leadership of individual districts of the oblast are not excluded.

So, we shall live and see. Tomorrow may already confirm or refute the statements made in this analysis hot on the heels of events.