Importers and traders remain cautious about new import contracts. The main offers for hot-rolled coil (HRC) remained at €740–760/t EXW in Northern Europe and €730–750/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers to Italy held at €590–610/t CIF, writes GMK Center.
European mills remain confident in their price position. Producers aim to raise prices for January and Q1 2027 deliveries, offering material at around €790/t EXW or delivered (depending on the market and producer). Producers' optimism is mainly driven by rising production costs and reduced competition from imports. Rising energy prices have increased pressure on mills, while EU safeguard quotas and the CBAM mechanism have made overseas purchases more expensive and complex.
However, distributors and service centers assess the current market situation far less optimistically. Many companies report that they still have enough material to cover their needs until the end of the year, which allows them to postpone new purchases until January or February. Some market participants also point to significant volumes of imported steel awaiting customs clearance at European ports. This reduces the urgent need for additional orders. "I believe buyers will have to return to the market sooner than they say. They have been postponing purchases for a long time, so they will have to replenish their stocks," one German distributor told WSD.
The Italian market remains particularly sensitive to supply restrictions after Italy's Court of Cassation on October 29 rejected Acciaierie d'Italia's final appeal, upholding the decision to halt primary steelmaking at the Taranto plant. Although in recent years the company produced only about 1 million tonnes of steel per year and had a relatively limited presence on the spot market, this closure has heightened concerns about shortages. The updated EU tariff quotas introduced in July 2026 restricted access for foreign suppliers, while CBAM increased costs and uncertainty associated with imported steel.
Some Italian buyers are responding by purchasing slabs from China, India and Turkey for processing at domestic rolling capacity, including at Acciaierie d'Italia facilities. This approach helps them obtain semi-finished products that are not subject to the same trade restrictions as imported HRC, and also partially offsets the reduced availability of finished steel.
Importers and traders remain cautious about new import contracts. The risk of exhausting quarterly quotas restrains purchases from several countries, including Turkey. Additional costs associated with CBAM and protectionist measures have made imports less attractive compared to domestic market offers.
WSD's position. Currently, EU prices are behaving as if the market is experiencing a supply surplus. According to Eurofer, 10 million tonnes of capacity have been restarted, which, according to WSD estimates, added about 8 million tonnes of net capacity (or approximately 0.66 million tonnes per month). Steel mill margins fell to €157/t in October — the lowest since January 2026 and significantly below the historical average of €180/t. Mills are no longer able to offer discounts.
At the same time, buyers will not be able to stay away from purchases for long, as stocks are depleting very quickly. According to preliminary estimates, apparent consumption fell by 11% year-on-year in the third quarter. Since end-user activity is expected to decline only slightly (by about 1.0% year-on-year), this implies a supply deficit of 3.5 million tonnes in the third quarter. Restocking in October is unlikely, as imports may fall by more than 2.0 million tonnes year-on-year. To balance the market, domestic production must grow along with apparent demand, which will support prices. WSD expects HRC prices in November at €760/t EXW in Northwest Europe, with further growth to €780–800/t by the end of the year.
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