Dziamulych versus Shyba: an expected victory or an unexpected defeat?

Oleksandr Hlavatskyi, a non-partisan director of the private tourist firm "Alex," who never misses an opportunity to nominate himself in regular elections to any representative body, and each time unsuccessfully. Quite often, Oleksandr Filimonovych, with all due respect to his person, acts as a kind of buffoon of election campaigns. His fiery speeches alone, from which voters clutch their bellies (from laughter), are worth something. Or recall the public debates on the "Avers" TV channel in 2002 between him, as a candidate for the post of mayor of Lutsk, and the incumbent mayor and, at the same time, candidate for this post, Anton Kryvytskyi. The elections in Turiisk were no exception. It came to comic situations when leaflets in support of Mr. Hlavatskyi were handed out right from the window of his "Mercedes."

Sometimes the thought occurs that Oleksandr Filimonovych doesn't need the position at all — he uses any election campaign only to advertise himself. Sometimes real candidates take advantage of this to disperse the votes of their opponents. One can assume that in these elections Oleksandr Hlavatskyi received "compensation" for participating in it as a candidate. After all, he worked in Bohdan Shyba's electoral field, using images of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko in his campaign materials. The use of collages where Mr. Hlavatskyi is next to the aforementioned leaders was not agreed upon with the representations of the respective political forces in the region.

Ivan Dziamulych, non-partisan head of the education and science department of the Volyn Regional State Administration. The main candidate from the authorities, whose election campaign was conducted, according to the head of the Volyn branch of the CVU, Oleksandr Stirko, "in the best traditions of the post-Soviet administrative idea." Focusing attention on what the department he heads has done, using administrative pressure in "work" with educators, with school principals, populist promises to voters, black PR against his main opponent — Bohdan Shyba, abuse of his official position during the election campaign — this is far from the entire arsenal of means used in the election race.

On February 4, the election headquarters of the candidate for deputy of the regional council, Bohdan Shyba, held a press conference at which it expressed its indignation at "administrative pressure on the course of the election campaign in Turiisk district" and cited "concrete facts" which, according to the head of the election headquarters of the "Our Ukraine" candidate Bohdan Shyba, Oleksandr Martyniuk, testified to violations of the Law of Ukraine "On Elections of Deputies of Local Councils and Village, Settlement, City Heads" by Ivan Dziamulych.

As Oleksandr Martyniuk stated, "administrative pressure on the course of the election campaign goes beyond all possible frameworks of both legislation and, ultimately, common sense." Speaking of facts, Oleksandr Ivanovych stated that the printed material "Time to Come to Your Senses, Kume!" which was printed on January 29, 2004 in three Volyn newspapers ("Volyn," "Viche," "Dosvitnia Zoria") and in the Turiisk district newspaper and contained negative information about the candidate for the regional council Bohdan Shyba, violates election legislation in its form and mechanism of distribution. It was about the fact that the author of this material is the Haiky village head Anatolii Zholob, who is, accordingly, an official of a local self-government body. The Law "On Elections of Deputies of Local Councils, City, Settlement, Village Heads" in paragraph 2 of Article 36 prohibits participation in the election campaign, in particular in agitation, by local self-government officials. Therefore, according to Oleksandr Martyniuk, the authorship of this material and its very appearance was a gross violation of election legislation by Mr. Zholob.

"We respond to these things. In particular, a complaint was filed with the territorial election commission regarding the violation by Mr. Zholob. There was a submission to the prosecutor of Volyn region from People's Deputy Volodymyr Bondar regarding the same violation, there was a submission from the authorized representative of our candidate to the district prosecutor's office. So far, we are not aware of the reaction of law enforcement agencies. The election commission made a rather 'soft' and loyal decision that, obviously, it is necessary to appeal to the regional council, which, in turn, should appeal to the Haiky village head Mr. Zholob, and, roughly speaking, wag a finger at him: 'Anatolii Fedorovych, don't do that anymore, because it's not allowed.' We believe that this decision is rather 'soft,' but let it be on the conscience of the election commission, we have no claims, from a formal point of view, to its work and will await the reaction of law enforcement agencies on this matter and on the consequences of other facts," Oleksandr Martyniuk stated at the press conference. As of the morning of February 13, the plaintiffs had not yet received responses from the prosecutor's office.

Oleksandr Martyniuk also stated that "the distribution of the material 'Time to Come to Your Senses, Kume!' and materials that will appear on February 5 in regional publications and, possibly, district ones, is being handled by the regional state administration and personally by the deputy head of the regional state administration, Mr. Stepan Rodych, which can be interpreted within the same article of the law 'On Elections of Deputies of Local Councils.'"

Stepan Rodych, deputy head of the regional state administration, who was accused of "centralized distribution of critical materials about Bohdan Shyba," commented on this statement as follows: "People can say whatever they want here. I'm used to such publications from the so-called opposition in the person of Mr. Bondar and Co. I don't even want to sue them — it would be too great an honor for them."

However, according to unofficial information, Stepan Volodymyrovych did indeed engage in pre-election "production relations" with representatives of the region's media, particularly those connected to the regional council or the regional state administration. Thus, one of the editors of Volyn publications in which the material "Time to Come to Your Senses, Kume!" was printed unequivocally hinted at the involvement of one of the deputy heads of the Volyn Regional State Administration in the distribution of this material in the press. Individual journalists of this publication also confirmed this.

An indirect proof of such involvement can also be considered the fact that in the next Thursday issue of the newspaper "Volyn" after the publication of the "kum," no critical materials against Shyba were printed. So, if one believes the accounts of the reaction of the editor-in-chief of "Volyn," Stepan Sachuk, to the publication of the Haiky village head Mr. Zholob in other Volyn publications, he expressed his indignation that the client had promised exclusivity of the material, which is why Mr. Sachuk agreed to its publication. In other issues of "Volyn," only positive reviews about both main contenders for the post of deputy of the regional council — Dziamulych and Shyba — were heard.

I ask that the above-mentioned statements about the centralized distribution of critical materials against Bohdan Shyba in Volyn media be considered my own reflections, since I do not have direct evidence that could be presented in court.

Among other violations, Oleksandr Martyniuk named the fact that the head of the education department of the Turiisk district state administration, Mykhailo Volodymyrovych Panasiuk, who is also an official and also has no right to participate in such events, actively participated in meetings with voters. Also, Bohdan Shyba's election headquarters has information that during trips around the district, the candidate supported by the authorities — Dziamylych Ivan Vasyliovych, who heads the education department of the regional state administration — used official transport.

Also during the press conference, it was noted that the headquarters has information that "in many, if not all, settlements of Turiisk district, 'interviews' of teachers and school principals with students' parents are taking place in order to persuade them to vote exclusively for one person, for the same 'candidate from the authorities.'"

Unfortunately, it was not possible to obtain a comment from Ivan Dziamulych himself regarding the press conference given by Bohdan Shyba's election headquarters. As reported in his reception office, he was to appear at his workplace after February 8, that is, after the day of elections to the regional council.

Ivan Kostrovskyi, a member of the SPU, head of the "Zapovit" agricultural enterprise. He did not conduct active and broad pre-election agitation. He took third place with almost 16 percent of voters' votes thanks to his authority as the head of a former collective farm. It is worth noting that the previous deputy of the regional council from Turiisk region — Sviatoslav Hryshchenko — was actually the head of this same agricultural enterprise. Membership in Moroz's party also did not help Ivan Kostrovskyi gain a majority of votes in the elections to the regional council. Thus, according to a sociological survey conducted on January 26 in Turiisk district by the Agency for Social Analysis "Sotsium-XXI," only 1.38 percent of voters support the Socialist Party of Ukraine.

Volodymyr Koshatiuk, a non-partisan 44-year-old pensioner of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. He conducted no agitation in the district at all. The voting results confirm this — only 550 votes in his support and the last place among candidates for regional council deputy. Even in his native Lukiv, Volodymyr Vasyliovych received only 13 percent of voters' votes. Apparently, they don't like police officers in Turiisk region... Even former ones.

Yevhen Oles, first deputy head of the Turiisk district state administration, head of the department of agriculture and food, non-partisan. The most realistic candidate for regional council deputy in Volyn regional council. He had perhaps the highest rating among contenders and the trust of voters. Given even a minimal pre-election campaign and being the sole candidate from the authorities, he could easily have gained the percentage of votes necessary for deputyship. However, on February 2, the territorial election commission decided to deregister his candidacy in the elections based on his own application. One can assume that Yevhen Ivanovych made such a decision not without the help of the higher leadership along the executive vertical in the region. The regional state administration was betting on Dziamulych, so it was important to nominate a single candidate from the authorities. In principle, Oles's deregistration worked. However, given the uncertain voting result for Dziamulych, it would have been possible to use Yevhen Oles's potential, resources and rights as a candidate for longer, though directed at agitating for Dziamulych. Again, if the authorities had chosen Yevhen Ivanovych's candidacy for support, the victory of the candidate from the authorities would have come with "less blood." However, the Frenchman apparently has his own plans for Dziamulych...

Olena Prystupa, entrepreneur, head of the regional Party of the Disadvantaged People. By the way, the only woman in the election race. Olena Mykolaivna clearly did not have the resources to compete with the main contenders. Rather, her nomination can be interpreted from the point of view of image-making as the thesis "if I don't catch up, at least I'll warm myself." True, the only woman received the trust of not much more voters than the pensioner-policeman...

Valerii Cherniakov, an employee of the Turiisk forestry, a member of the Social-National Party of Ukraine (SNPU). One of the first to actively take up conducting the election campaign. The entire district was full of his leaflets. In his pre-election agitation, he used the image of Yushchenko and his opposition to the image of Kuchma+Dziamulych, which drew away part of Shyba's electorate. If Hlavatskyi and Dziamulych had not started active agitation 2 weeks before the elections, Valerii Viktorovych would have had good chances of breaking into 3rd-4th place with a decent percentage of votes. He did not particularly advertise his party membership.

Bohdan Shyba, deputy director of the Regional Development Agency "Volyn," a member of the UNP, deputy head of the election headquarters of the "Our Ukraine" Bloc in Volyn. The most realistic candidate from the opposition. From August 1995 to June 2002, he headed the Turiisk district state administration. He lived his entire life in Turiisk region, which ambiguously affected his pre-election image. During his tenure as head of the Turiisk regional state administration, the years of economic crisis throughout Ukraine fell, so the negative processes in the socio-economic sphere that occurred in Turiisk region at that time were inevitable. The authorities skillfully took advantage of this, lowering his rating with critical publications in the press. Moreover, they successfully calculated the timing, effectively leaving Shyba no time to respond.

Shyba conducted a transparent election campaign, agitating "for" himself, not "against" Dziamulych. The juxtaposition of these facts — double agitation ("for" and "against") by Dziamulych and the actual impossibility of responding in the press to all the accusations against Shyba — made itself felt on election day.

It is also worth noting Shyba's not entirely effective and not fully thought-out election campaign. It should be clarified here — the technical aspects of execution were not brought to the required level "plus" tactical mistakes of the headquarters. The strategy, in my opinion, was correct.

Thus, a big mistake was the start of mass agitation in villages only a week before election day. This should have been started at least two weeks earlier. The best method of persuading voters — direct meetings with them — also proved ineffective for Shyba. Due to the lack of informational support for the meetings (in the form of an elementary leaflet on a post!), 15-20 people came to the meetings, and even those were already inclined to vote for Bohdan Pavlovych. The most important segment of voters — those who had not yet decided whom to vote for — was left out.

Another shortcoming is that despite loud statements that Dziamulych was violating election legislation during agitation, real attempts to get rid of the most important opponent — Ivan Vasyliovych — were never made by "Our Ukraine."

The calculation was based on actively exploiting the names of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko to one's advantage. The calculation, in principle, was correct, especially in a region where about 62 percent support Yushchenko and another 8 — Tymoshenko. But without additional arguments in one's favor and without preventive measures regarding the opponent from the authorities, such conduct of the election campaign proved insufficient.

It is worth noting another factor in Shyba's defeat — this is the indecisiveness of Bohdan Pavlovych himself both during the election campaign and before nominating his candidacy for the elections. This can be explained by the fact that Bohdan Shyba feels the ballast of the past behind him, particularly his leadership of the Turiisk district state administration in 1995-2002.

A shortcoming in the organization of elections on the part of "Our Ukraine" was also the low organization, discipline and professional training of local (residents of Turiisk district) observers and the absence of election commission members at all polling stations. If it had not been for the observers "recruited" from Lutsk, Kovel, Novovolynsk and Lokachi, one can assume that Bohdan Pavlovych could have lost by an even larger margin.

Perhaps Shyba's defeat in the elections to the regional council will also have its positive side for "Our Ukraine" — before the 2004 presidential elections, the necessary adjustments will be made in the organization of the election campaign in Volyn.

Taking into account the above, let us move on to the dry figures of the election results of February 8.

According to the Volyn regional territorial commission, on Sunday in Turiisk district voter turnout was 75.17 percent (16,167 people), the total number of voters was 21,506 people. District election commissions (there were 70 of them) distributed 16,269 ballots, of which 567 ballots were recognized as invalid (3.5%).

The votes for the candidates were distributed as follows: Ivan Dziamyluch — 5,592 votes (34.59%), Bohdan Shyba — 5,155 votes (31.88%), Ivan Kostrovskyi — 2,577 votes (15.94%), Oleksandr Hlavatskyi — 1,539 votes (9.51%), Valerii Cherniakov — 1,271 votes (7.86%), Olena Prystupa — 713 votes (4.41%), Volodymyr Koshatiuk — 550 votes (3.4%). 551 voters (3.41%) did not support any candidate.

The difference between Dziamulych's and Shyba's results was 439 votes, which is 2.71%.

During the monitoring of elections on voting day, observers recorded repeated cases of ballots being issued to voters without presentation of identification documents, and voting in booths by two or more persons.

At certain polling stations, a significant number of applications for home voting were submitted (8-10% of the total number of voters, and at some 20-30% of the total number of voters). At certain polling stations, when reviewing these applications, one could notice the practical identity of handwriting of the persons who submitted applications to the DEC.

According to the head of the Volyn branch of the CVU, Oleksandr Stirko, "law and order on voting day was ensured by an extremely large number of law enforcement representatives. Each polling station was guarded by at least two police officers, at certain stations there were 3-4 of them, moreover in the town of Turiisk, the security of polling stations was ensured by lieutenant colonels and majors. As a rule, in previous elections, one police officer was sufficient to ensure security during voting."

On voting day, observation of the voting process was carried out by representatives of various media (newspapers "Dosvitnia Zoria," "Oriientyry," "Bez Tsenzury"), as well as representatives of the public organization "Association of Young Reformers (AMoRe)," who conducted observation on behalf of the leadership of their organization. In fact, observers from AMoRe and "Bez Tsenzury" worked for Shyba's election headquarters, preventing direct falsification of election results.

As noted by the head of the territorial commission, observer certificates were not issued to any representative of public organizations. He also emphasized that observers from organizations registered (legalized) in the region, with authorization from the head of the organization, have the right to conduct observation, although the district election commission did not adopt any decision on this.

According to Oleksandr Stirko, one can say that this campaign was conducted with excess election funds, but this is a "common problem," these are shortcomings of the law "On Elections of Local Councils." One can say that candidates for deputies of the regional council do not have the right to field their observers in elections, although they are, in fact, subjects of the electoral process. Subjects of the electoral process, in fact, only have the right to have their five authorized persons who represent their interests. It is clear that they cannot conduct observation. Another shortcoming of the current legislation on elections to local councils is that according to the law "On Elections of Deputies of Local Councils," a multi-mandate district allows marking several candidates on the ballot. "We had such recollections of the 2002 elections (unfortunately, this was not proven, but there were such serious suspicions) that checkmarks were simply delivered by hand into the ballots," says Oleksandr Stirko.

In conclusion, I think it is worth hearing the comments of the candidates themselves:

Bohdan Shyba: "I expected a struggle from the elections and hoped in the depths of my soul that it would resemble elections. In reality, it turned out to be a harsh war. The authorities waged an information war, let's call it a psychological war against voters, against the population, because the goal was to win the elections for a clearly defined candidate at any cost, regardless of what level of support, what rating, whether people want it or not.

Ivan Vasyliovych promised a lot during the agitation. It seems to me that he was given such an instruction. Activists of 'Our Ukraine' recorded all these promises, in every village, at every meeting, and, believe me, all those promises are worth millions of hryvnias. And we will demand their fulfillment.

I am not going to leave for history all the facts of election legislation violations. Each specific fact will be given a legal assessment so as to prevent the repetition of such violations on a larger scale in the presidential elections."

Ivan Dziamulych refused to give any comment until his approval for the position of deputy by the Volyn regional council.

A certain behind-the-scenes intrigue around the election results, individual hints at a "legal assessment" of the course of the campaign, etc., leave the question open: "Whose candidacy and when will the council approve?" We'll live and see.