Bitcoin dropped to $73,333, sweeping liquidity below the 2024 all-time high.

Short positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fully closed.

Ethereum has lost its local strength, and the ETH/BTC pair has fallen below 0.02870.

DXY resumed its growth after the US elections. The main triggers of the week will be CPI and PPI.

Disclaimer: this material is not a financial recommendation or a call to action. The presented analytics is the private opinion of its author. Incrypted is not responsible for readers' investment decisions.

Last week summed up the October price cycle. The crypto market went through a classic liquidity sweep in both directions, breaking the 2024 all-time high and updating local lows.

Bitcoin ― the idea is closed, the market needs a pause

The October correction ended with a two-stage move. First, we saw a false breakout above $80,000 with a sweep of last week's high (PWH) at $81,188 ― a classic trap for market participants who believed in a quick recovery. Then came a sharp reversal, a breakdown of support at last month's low (PML) of $76,270, and a decline to $73,333.

As a result, the psychological level of $74,000 and the previous 2024 all-time high (ATH) at $73,881 were swept. At the same time, the second target ― the weekly Fibonacci 0.5 level at $72,571 ― has so far remained untouched.

My short, held since the beginning of October, has been fully closed along with the remaining volume. The idea has been realized. Trying to squeeze the last percentages of profit from the market and holding the remainder of the position amid uncertainty is an unjustified risk. I am currently out of the market. There are no longs, and I am in no hurry whatsoever to open them.

Current structure

For me, any current growth is a technical bounce within a downward correction. I have repeatedly emphasized in previous reviews that after such a drop, the chart needs to spend some time in a sideways range. The longer the market accumulates volume, the more sustainable the next trend may prove to be.

I have defined a working range of $70,000-$80,000 for myself, within which I expect a gradual liquidity sweep from both sides. The only trigger for a long is a confident consolidation above $75,000, where the day and week opening levels are currently located.

This refers specifically to candle closes, not a brief puncture of the level. Until then, I view any upward impulse as an opportunity for selling.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $74,323.

The RSI indicator on the four-hour timeframe has dropped to 32 points, approaching the oversold zone. At the same time, open interest (OI) has risen to 96,600 contracts. Retail participants are aggressively opening short positions near the local bottom, creating preconditions for a sharp upward impulse via a short squeeze.

Working scenarios for Bitcoin

Scenario A ― rejection from $75,000 and achievement of lower targets

A brief bounce to $75,000, formation of a double top directly below the opening levels, and a reversal. Then ― a breakdown of $73,333 and $72,571 without significant pullbacks, with a dip into the lower part of the daily price imbalance (Daily FVG) down to $70,000.

Four-hour chart of BTC/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Scenario B ― consolidation above $75,000 and exit to the upper boundary

A pass through the $75,000 zone with a successful retest of the level. A return above PML $76,270 and entry into the four-hour price imbalance (4H FVG) up to $78,500. After a local pullback with buying, an impulsive sweep of PWH $81,188 and a move to $82,000 are expected.

In this variant, I will look for longs after the scenario is confirmed.

Four-hour chart of BTC/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Scenario C ― a wide sideways range and liquidity sweep from both sides

Additional liquidity collection from below through a breakdown of $73,333 and $72,571 with entry into the Daily FVG.

Then ― a sharp buyback through $75,000 to $78,500 and a repeated decline into the $73,000-$74,000 zone. In this way, a base is formed for the next trend through the liquidation of short and long positions.

Four-hour chart of BTC/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Macroeconomic background

The December rate hike is already priced in, and the energy crisis shows no signs of ending.

Increased volatility is expected this week. On Tuesday, consumer price index (CPI) data will be released, and on Friday ― producer price index (PPI) data. Both releases are scheduled for 15:30.

Inflation figures higher than forecasts could provoke a final decline in Bitcoin to $72,500.

Ethereum ― the short-term growth is over, a return to the origins

A week ago, Ethereum showed signs of strength, trying to seize leadership. Now it is obvious that this was only a temporary recovery. The chart rose to PWH $2449.95, collected liquidity above the high, and then lost all its gains.

A sharp correction pushed Ethereum down to $2050, directly to the test of $2000 ― the middle of the daily imbalance, from where the previous growth began in August.

The positive news of last week could not hold the price. When a favorable information background does not provide continuation of the move, the market demonstrates the real balance of power. And right now the advantage is clearly not on the buyers' side.

Last week's Scenario B played out completely. The remainder of the October short reached the $2070 target and was closed.

ETH/BTC ― leadership lost

The pair attempted to reverse, sweeping the local low of 0.02870, but could not hold its positions. Now the quote has again fallen below this level to 0.02841.

Such weakness usually leads to continuation of the move, so the next relevant target is 0.02760. Only a deep sweep of this low with an instant buyback can create a proper foundation for altcoin recovery.

Current structure and metrics

Ethereum is trading around $2108, directly in the middle of the large Daily FVG of $1920-$2220. The 4H RSI indicator is at 27 points, which corresponds to deep oversold conditions. Open interest has decreased to 2.26 million.

However, oversold conditions are not a signal to buy immediately. This is merely a reason to refrain from opening new shorts right at the bottom.

Working scenarios for Ethereum

Scenario A ― buyback in the FVG and decline to $1930

Sideways fluctuations in the 4H FVG block of $2150-$2170, a failed att