On Sunday, bitcoin dropped to $73,500 but held slightly above its 200-day moving average, located near $73,000. No daily close below this level has been recorded since August. At the same time, the weekly candle closed slightly below the 50-week average at $75,500. Thus, bitcoin interrupted a seven-week period of trading above this indicator.

Outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs became an additional pressure factor. Over the week, the funds lost $1.28 billion — the largest figure since June. According to Wintermute's estimate, this was enough to offset all net capital inflows into such products since the beginning of the year. The only session when funds based on the leading cryptocurrency or Ethereum recorded an inflow of funds was Wednesday.

Analysts believe that until this trend changes, a bitcoin recovery is unlikely to indicate the emergence of new capital in the market.

Liquidations also added pressure: by Monday, their total volume exceeded $1 billion. Ethereum accounted for a larger share of forcibly closed positions than bitcoin, despite the significantly smaller market capitalization of Ethereum. At the same time, almost all bitcoin position liquidations involved longs.

Wintermute considers this a moderately positive factor for the market, since the liquidations reduced the number of overly optimistic positions whose holders could have become forced sellers during the next decline.

Altcoins fell more than bitcoin

According to Wintermute data, altcoins showed worse dynamics compared to bitcoin. Analysts expect this trend may persist. In their opinion, the second half of the recent altcoin recovery occurred mainly due to the reallocation of already existing capital between assets rather than an inflow of new funds.

Among large altcoins, ZEC was one of the few that showed growth. Wintermute noted that the resilience of this asset amid the general decline may indicate continued demand for the privacy narrative. At the same time, part of its growth has already begun to fade.

According to the market maker, bitcoin will continue to trade as a risk asset with high sensitivity to liquidity changes until uncertainty regarding US monetary policy and regulation of the artificial intelligence sector decreases.

Fed and macroeconomic risks

Investor sentiment was also influenced by expectations of further tightening of US monetary policy. Friday's employment report showed the creation of 165,000 new jobs against a consensus forecast of approximately 60,000. After the data was published, the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December rose to 77% from 67% a week earlier.

Wintermute believes the market is reasonably pricing in this risk. According to analysts, wage growth remains too high for the Fed to have grounds to refrain from further policy tightening. They call the combination of a rate hike with a stock market decline caused by problems in the AI sector one of the worst scenarios for crypto assets: it simultaneously reduces liquidity and investors' appetite for risk.

Experts maintain a cautious view of the market while bitcoin trades below its 50-week moving average. Analysts name $73,000 as the nearest important level: a daily close below this mark and the 200-day average could open the way to $68,000.

At the same time, a return of bitcoin above $80,000 and consolidation at this level will force Wintermute to revise its market assessment to a more constructive one. An additional condition for changing the view will be a week with net inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs.

In the medium term, analysts continue to favor individual sectors that demonstrate relative resilience during a downturn. In particular, they highlight privacy, decentralized perpetual contract exchanges (perp DEX), and prediction markets. In the event of a further decline, Wintermute advises paying attention to the largest and most resilient projects in these areas rather than rushing to buy assets at current levels.

Recall that experts previously recorded retail capitulation and whale accumulation.