Bitcoin is increasingly lagging behind the stock market. Even during the recovery of technology stocks, the asset showed almost no growth, and outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US exceeded $1 billion over five trading sessions. This is reported in a Bloomberg article.
Journalists emphasized that the market dynamics at the beginning of the week were telling. On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 3.4% after the sell-off in technology stocks the previous week. However, bitcoin barely reacted to the recovery in investors' appetite for risk. When stocks began falling again the next day, the first cryptocurrency showed even weaker dynamics.
According to Bloomberg, since the beginning of the year bitcoin has lost about 16%, while the S&P 500 has risen 10%. The lag persists on the monthly and six-month horizons as well.
AI and crypto derivatives compete for capital
Market participants cite several reasons that could have weakened demand for bitcoin. Among them are the higher yields of alternative assets, the consequences of large-scale liquidations on the crypto market, and the Binance hack, the article says.
At the same time, speculative capital has not disappeared from the market but is moving into other areas. In particular, artificial intelligence remains an attractive sector for investors, despite the deterioration in sentiment in recent weeks. In addition, platforms like Hyperliquid offer traders alternative instruments for leveraged trading.
Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter author Noelle Acheson believes that bitcoin is no longer the primary asset for investors seeking high risk. According to her, AI projects and small-cap companies are creating significantly greater competition for it.
Another factor in the change in dynamics could have been institutional participation. Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, explained to Bloomberg that the spread of derivatives and more complex hedging strategies is gradually changing bitcoin's volatility profile and smoothing out sharp price fluctuations.
At the same time, historically bitcoin has lagged behind the stock market during periods of risk aversion and deleveraging. This was most noticeable in 2018 and 2022. However, the current weakness is cause for additional concern, since the trend began to form back in 2025, when bitcoin was updating all-time highs but still underperforming stocks, the journalists emphasized.
FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that such investor caution creates preconditions for a new decline in quotations.
Recall that Wintermute previously warned of the risk of bitcoin falling to $68,000.