Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 50-week moving average for the first time in seven weeks.

Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital recalled two previous instances when, after such a signal, the price did not update the bear market low.

The Fear and Greed Index approached the extreme fear zone.

On the night of November 9, 2026, the price of the first cryptocurrency dropped below $74,000, which triggered a surge in the volume of futures position liquidations above $1 billion.

BTC/USDT chart on the Binance exchange.

Volume of liquidations on futures contracts in the crypto asset market.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, noted that bitcoin dropped below the 50-week moving average after seven weeks of trading above that level.

bitcoin just closed below its 50 week moving average after holding above it for 7 consecutive weeks

two other times (2011-12 & 2019-20) btc closed below its 50w after reclaiming it post-bear bottom

neither of those times did the bear make a new lower low (weekly close data) https://t.co/CeDKMr6WZU

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 9, 2026

According to him, a similar situation had previously been observed twice — in 2011-2012 and 2019-2020. In both cases, bitcoin closed the week below the 50-week average after returning above it from the levels reached at the bottom of the bear market.

Thorn noted that in neither of these cases did the price record a new lower low of the bear cycle on weekly closes.

The Fear Index is approaching extreme values

Analyst Darkfost also drew attention to the deterioration of market participants' sentiment. According to him, the Fear & Greed Index dropped below 30 points, approaching the extreme fear zone.

In the short term, increased fear remains a negative signal, since investor capitulation often occurs precisely during such periods. At the same time, in the medium and long term, market weakness may create opportunities for gradually building or adjusting positions in bitcoin.

Darkfost noted that during bear markets, the Fear and Greed Index is less useful for assessing sentiment, since fear may dominate throughout the entire cycle. Instead, after the market momentum shifts to a more positive one, the indicator becomes a more informative benchmark.

Fear and Greed Index in the crypto market.

Recall that earlier, the author of the book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, stated that he cannot wait for bitcoin to crash.