Attempts by the administration of US President Donald Trump to lower diesel fuel prices allowed Russia to double its exports last month.
At the same time, as the Financial Times writes, none of the fuel shipments, which became possible after Trump's decision to ease sanctions against Moscow, ever reached the US.
In October, Russia exported 271,000 barrels of diesel fuel per day, compared to 135,000 barrels a month earlier, according to data from the analytical company Kpler. The increase occurred after the US began pressuring Ukraine, demanding it stop strikes on Russian oil refineries. In addition, on October 9, the American president announced an agreement with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on an "immediate" increase in fuel supplies to US and global markets.
Although Russian diesel has not yet reached the American market due to attempts by supporters of Ukraine to prevent tankers from delivering cargoes, Russia's exports have increased to Brazil, Turkey and other countries.
A White House representative, in a comment to the FT, stated that an increase in the supply of Russian diesel on the global market will help lower prices for Americans. According to him, this is consistent with the agreements between Trump and Putin.
In recent weeks, at least two tankers that initially headed to the US changed course. According to ship tracking data, only one tanker with Russian diesel remains off the east coast of the US, waiting for a buyer.
Trump's agreement with Putin sparked outrage among Democrats and some Republicans in the US Congress. They stated that the deal could be illegal and demanded that it be canceled.
According to Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at the consulting company Energy Aspects, in September of this year Russia exported 120,000 barrels of diesel per day, and in October – 260,000 barrels. For comparison: the average export figure in October over the past five years was about 700,000 barrels per day.
He explained that the increase in supplies over the past two months became possible because Russian refineries were able to ramp up production during a pause in Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries on October 30 after a two-week break. Meanwhile, Russia extended the ban on diesel fuel exports until the end of January, although exceptions are provided.
Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia noted that Russia will now prioritize supplying the domestic fuel market. The country is also beginning to experience a gasoline shortage, which has already led it to introduce rationing.
"The operation of Russian oil refineries remains under significant pressure. We expect that in the near term, processing volumes will remain limited at around 4 million barrels per day. The prospects for a significant recovery in production are slim, as the attacks continue," the expert said.
In October, US President Donald Trump stated that he had arranged for Russia to supply millions of tons of diesel fuel to the American and global markets in several stages.
President Volodymyr Zelensky called this decision "unfair and dishonest" and compared this agreement to last year's meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska.
Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, noted that agreements on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the US could be a cover for pressure on Ukraine aimed at limiting strikes on Russian oil refineries.