In the baseline scenario, the NBU assumes that the blockade of Great Odesa ports will last until mid-2027 / photo ua.depositphotos.comRussian shelling of infrastructure and the blockade of seaports in the second half of 2026 will reduce the growth rate of Ukraine's real GDP by 1.9 points. Losses in the foreign trade balance will reach $6.6 billion, according to the October inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The largest single factor of losses will be the shutdown of the largest metallurgical enterprises. According to NBU estimates, this factor alone will reduce GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026. At the same time, a significant part of the losses will fall not only directly on metallurgy, but also on related sectors due to a decline in demand for their products and services.
"The intensification of Russian attacks on enterprises and infrastructure, together with the blockade of ports, has led to a sharp slowdown in economic activity and, at the same time, increased price pressure," the NBU notes. According to the regulator's estimates, in Q3 GDP losses due to these factors will amount to 0.7 percentage points, and in Q4 – another 1.2 percentage points.
Separately, the National Bank warns of a significant reduction in production and exports of metal products due to the destruction of industrial capacity and prolonged downtime of enterprises.
In the NBU's baseline scenario, it is assumed that the blockade of Great Odesa ports will last until mid-2027. This will continue to limit export opportunities for both the mining and metals complex and the agricultural sector. "The destruction of production capacity and prolonged downtime of metallurgical enterprises will lead to a significant reduction in production and a decline in exports of metal products," the report says.
For the mining and metals complex, expensive alternative logistics will remain an additional risk. The NBU notes that high transport costs will reduce the profitability of iron ore extraction, and restrictions on seaborne exports will lead to accumulation of products. In parallel, the agricultural sector will suffer significant losses. The reduction in exports of agricultural products will cause a deterioration of the foreign trade balance by $6.6 billion.
The National Bank warns that the negative effect of Russian attacks and problems with export logistics will not be limited to 2026. "The negative consequences of the shelling for economic activity and price dynamics will also be felt in 2027," the regulator emphasizes.
Thus, the shutdown of metallurgical enterprises, the destruction of infrastructure and the prolonged blockade of ports are already creating systemic losses for the Ukrainian economy - through a reduction in GDP, exports, production and the financial capabilities of enterprises.