\nThe long and tediously announced transition of "Our Ukraine" into the opposition seems to have finally happened. At least, the leader of the NU faction, Roman Bezsmertny, slammed the coalition door right from the parliament rostrum, and the obedient ministers unanimously wrote resignation letters. A "dissenting opinion" was found only in Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko. And even then, according to him, it was not he himself who decided not to leave the warm spot, but the President ordered him to stay. However, representatives of the ruling coalition still express doubts that "Our Ukraine" has left for good. Everyone is waiting for the party congress, which will take place tomorrow, October 21. Only after the congress's decision on the final completion of coalition negotiations will the "regionalists" agree to believe in the great opposition result of the pro-presidential faction. \n \n \nNaive are those who think that after the speech of the head of the "Our Ukraine" faction, Roman Bezsmertny, about the transition to the opposition, the storm in the parliamentary teacup will finally subside, the layers of the Verkhovna Rada political cocktail will settle, and it will be clear and obvious: here is this gray-brown-crimson liquid – the majority, and here is this white-red-orange formation – the opposition. \n \n \nBelieve me, this would be a wonderful option, the implementation of which would probably bring Ukraine closer to those very notorious European standards of democracy. But Ukraine is not exactly not Russia (although what democracy can be discussed regarding our northern neighbor?), it is even more so not Europe. Is it for nothing that political scientists of various stripes are indignant that the Ukrainian political class cannot be measured by any purely democratic yardsticks. The postulates of the great Machiavelli do not fit here. And the notorious Arthashastra nervously smokes on the sidelines. Since democracy in our country is a rather abstract, situational concept, perceived empirically rather than logically. \n \n \nWhy don't we take cover behind the opposition? \n \n \nThe decision of the pro-presidential faction to go into opposition seems to uninformed people to have been made with Viktor Yushchenko's blessing. And Roman Bezsmertny himself, explaining the reasons for this decision, said: The Party of Regions, with which NU had recently conducted lengthy negotiations on the latter's entry into the coalition majority, did not want to accept the conditions of possible new members. Let us recall that these conditions were reflected in the Universal of National Unity – a document in which Viktor Yushchenko's programmatic promises were written down. And since the pro-premier party dug in, then, consequently, the only path for "Our Ukraine" is to go into opposition. \n \n \nIt is entirely natural that BYuT, which found itself in the status of an opposition faction, did not at all welcome the departure of its former Maidan comrades-in-arms to the position of open confrontation with the current government, which, according to the new canons of the Constitution, is embodied by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. Why Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc balked is understandable. The opposition in our country is loved; all those wronged by the authorities are associated with it. And being in this status is much more pleasant than being in power: one can shamelessly criticize the powers that be while scoring points of electoral sympathy. As long as this situation suits Yulia Volodymyrivna, she does not need extra competitors in the place of the "wronged by the new government." That is why Roman Bezsmertny's initiative (and the decision to go into opposition, it seems, was made by a narrow circle of interested persons, and not at all by the President) was met coldly and contemptuously. \n \n \nBut the "Our Ukraine" people, by and large, don't give a damn about this. After all, it is not excluded that departure from power is a temporary measure for them. A sort of little breather that allows them to rebuild their ranks and regroup to accomplish more weighty tasks, about which – a little lower. Opposition status for Bezsmertny and all those with him is not a goal but a means. Spending a little time in the status of the wronged will not actually hurt "Our Ukraine" right now. The image of the orange team, so celebrated during the memorable revolutionary events, has become very badly battered. And it needs to be fixed at any cost. \n \n \nTo muddy the waters, the new oppositionists announced the formation of a so-called "shadow Cabinet," which, as we recall, the Party of Regions first wanted to create, then BYuT. The bloc named after Yulia Volodymyrivna immediately assumed a fighting stance, hinting to the orange ones that the idea of a "shadow government" belongs to them, and all key positions in this body should rightfully belong to BYuT. However, both the first and the second are openly bluffing when they announce their intention to create a structure capable of controlling the legitimately acting Cabinet of Ministers. After all, de facto and de jure, only a legitimate opposition can form a "shadow government," distribute positions in it, and engage in the activities inherent to such an entity. Neither BYuT nor "Our Ukraine" are such, if one follows the letter of the law. Since to this day there is no law "On the Opposition" in nature that regulates its activity. \n \n \nTherefore, all statements about the creation of "shadow cabinets" are nothing more than a show for the public. And deliberations about who has more rights to form a governmental antipode are not worth a plugged nickel. Not to mention that BYuT and "Our Ukraine" will not be able to pull off such a burden as building a mirror reflection of the Cabinet of Ministers. Remember, this summer Tymoshenko already tried to hint about what she needed to create a "shadow government"? And remember how it ended? Yulia Volodymyrivna was simply torn to shreds. Bezsmertny certainly remembers all this. Therefore, his words about forming a Cabinet antipode should, in my view, be regarded as a diversionary maneuver. \n \n \nMore precisely, as one of the components of this maneuver, since the very decision to go into opposition is a great political trick, a bluff. One that the "Our Ukraine" people need not at all to squeeze out BYuT or to spite the Party of Regions. No, this bluff was created by the orange ones for a completely different purpose – to win back the lost favor of the President. \n \n \nPresident, we are yours forever! \n \n \nIf one looks at the situation that developed this week from the point of view of the President–NSNU relationship, much becomes clear. All the actions of the orange faction members are easily explained and amenable to logical analysis. \n \n \nLet us start with the fact that the political project "Our Ukraine," and then NSNU, was created not at all to balance on the edge between power and opposition. This hastily cobbled-together union, in which big money ("Our Ukraine" and PPPU) covered itself with the necessary ideological component (RUKH, URP, and the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists), was created with one goal – to enter the power structures in the shortest possible time, entrench itself in them, and develop vigorous activity in distributing state goods into its own pockets. For opposition activity, at least the business component of this conglomerate was absolutely unsuitable. \n \n \nHowever, everything turned out not as the orange ones assumed: if the first move (promoting Viktor Yushchenko to the post of President) succeeded, then the second (securing legislative power in parliament for themselves) was cleanly lost in March 2006. We will not dwell on the reasons for the failure: gigabytes of articles have already been written about this. The point is different: the President, who found himself without support in the Verkhovna Rada, took a desperate step, striving to secure "Our Ukraine" at the helm of power. That is precisely why Viktor Andriyovych insisted so much on the adoption of the Universal, which, a priori, was supposed to cement a compromise between the PR and NSNU. But the calculation failed – Viktor Yanukovych, although he signed this document, did not want to go along with the President's "shadow conditions." Not much is known about these conditions. One of them, which everyone who was not lazy speculated about, was the removal of the CPU from the parliamentary coalition. Moreover, all this was presented under the sauce of the historical hatred of the nationalist wing of NU for the communists, while the true conditions of the operation remained in the shadows. But this plan also failed safely, though not without the participation of Yushchenko himself, who demanded too much from the premier. More precisely, his "dear friends," who influenced him, demanded it. The guarantor realized the erroneousness of these actions when it was already too late, and the unification with the coalition fell through. Although for the people the orange ones continued to imitate this process, declaring that the parties were looking for points of contact. \n \n \nAt approximately the same time, new people came to the Presidential Secretariat – Baloha, Haiduk, Bondar, Yatsenyuk. The tactics and strategy of the Head of State's actions change from purely defensive to sharply counterattacking. \n \nAnd what about "Our Ukraine"? This project is doomed to oblivion by the President himself. Rumors are spreading in the press (not at all unfounded) that Viktor Yushchenko at tomorrow's NSNU congress will relinquish the powers of honorary president and focus on independent confrontation with Yanukovych's Cabinet. In the ranks of the "Our Ukraine" people – panic. And so the union, which was held together by an honest word, is falling apart before our eyes. Certain influential individuals are ready to betray their yesterday's comrades-in-arms in order to remain in the guarantor's field of vision and take part in his new political project, which, as was said above, is currently being actively developed by the analysts of Pinchuk-Taruta. \n \n \nThe way out, although not the most successful – the decision to go into opposition. By the way, it was adopted not at all unanimously: faction members not belonging to "Our Ukraine" told in secret that on the day the decision was made, Bezsmertny and Co had to "pressure" 20 of their party comrades who did not want to go into opposition. The step was taken, but few believed in the sincerity of the pro-presidential faction's intentions. It is understandable: after Roman Petrovych's statement, the expected announcement – about reunification with BYuT – was not heard. As a result, a responsible political move turned into a poorly concealed PR campaign. Conducted only to attract the President's attention: they say, we can still do something, and we have courage to spare. \n \n \nThe trouble is that the President did not appreciate the feat. Since "Our Ukraine" and everything connected with it no longer falls within the circle of his interests. And at tomorrow's NSNU congress, we may witness the Head of State parting ways with the project he once created. And the role of "Our Ukraine" in the opposition is nullified by itself. It is not excluded that the faction will still exist "by inertia" for some time, and then, probably, it will have to survive a period of disintegration and scattering to different poles – the opposition and the coalition. However, certain optimists, like Mykola Katerynchuk, believe that Yushchenko will not only not relinquish his "honorary powers" but will also agree to become the real head of NSNU. Well, anything can happen in this country. We'll live and see. \n