On February 18, Lutsk was visited by the well-known economist, public and political figure, director of the Institute of Society Transformation — Oleh Soskin. Mr. Soskin pursued two goals with his visit: the first — conveying his own vision of the socio-economic and political processes taking place in the state to the population of Volyn, the second — creating a branch of the Ukrainian National Conservative Party, whose chairman is Oleh Soskin, in our region.
It should be noted that Oleh Soskin was twice an adviser to President of Ukraine L. Kuchma and is well acquainted with all the processes prevailing in the highest echelons of Ukrainian power.
During the press conference, Oleh Ihorovych analyzed the activity of the authorities in the socio-economic and financial sphere over the past year, and also shared his vision of the near future in this area. Sharp criticism was voiced of the actions of the Kinakh government regarding the non-fulfillment and deficit of the 2002 budget. Last year's privatization program was completely failed; for this year a real budget deficit of 7 billion hryvnias is anticipated, while for servicing the domestic and foreign debt already in April Ukraine must spend 11 billion hryvnias, which are not included in the 2003 budget. Based on these figures alone, the expert gives a discouraging forecast for the socio-economic development of the state for 2003. The scholar explained the situation that has developed on the Ukrainian currency market, in particular he criticized the activity of the National Bank of Ukraine headed by S. Tihipko regarding maintaining the hryvnia exchange rate by throwing large volumes of dollar mass onto the market. O. Soskin forecasts 5% inflation of the hryvnia in February alone, and by the end of spring — a major collapse of the hryvnia.
The expansion of Russian capital and the absorption of Ukrainian liquid enterprises is also one of the causes of the economic crisis. The creation of a joint gas transportation consortium deserves special analysis, which, according to Soskin, is being created with absolutely unequal partners on conditions disadvantageous for Ukraine.
O. Soskin sees possible geopolitical causes of the destabilization of the situation in Ukraine this year in: the collapse of the dollar, a possible war in Iraq, parliamentary elections in Russia.
According to O. Soskin: "We face a hot spring and a very hot summer. There will be no compromise between the ruling regime and the opposition forces. There will be a radicalization of the situation in all spheres..." Summarizing all the causes, it becomes obvious that Ukraine faces a financial-economic and political collapse."
The political force that Oleh Soskin presented supports the actions of right-wing opposition politicians V. Yushchenko and Yu. Tymoshenko, and considers itself a right-wing radical opposition. It will be interesting to observe what place the newly created political force will occupy in the political niche of the region.
Oleh Soskin is absolutely convinced that the deaths of Ukrainian opposition politicians and journalists are not accidental — these are contract killings ordered by the authorities. After the Yermak case, it is impossible to hope for a democratic resolution of internal conflicts in Ukrainian politics.
Regarding the "European choice of Ukraine," Soskin noted that, given the clan-oligarchic system of the Ukrainian economy, the absence of a middle class and a number of other reasons, these are merely declarative slogans. Ukraine, looking toward Europe, is increasingly approaching the Eurasian space, where a completely different system of values prevails. Although at the same time he emphasized that we have a chance to fight for associated membership in the EU, and there are all prerequisites for joining the WTO and NATO, and for this we only need to move from demagoguery to real steps in this direction.