The National Bank expects iron ore prices to grow by 1.6% year-over-year in 2026.

The expected increase in the average price of Ukrainian billet is 7.4% y/y. The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that by the end of 2026, average prices for steel billet will rise by 7.4% y/y, to $499 per tonne (FOB Ukraine terms). These price assumptions are given in the NBU inflation report for October 2026, writes GMK Center.

Average iron ore quotes are expected to rise by 1.6% year-on-year, to $101.8 per tonne (on China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe terms).

According to the regulator's estimates, in 2027 a further decline in iron ore prices is expected by an average of 4.3% y/y, to $97.4/t, and in 2028 — by another 2.9% y/y, to $94.6/t (China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe).

“Iron ore prices will decline as a result of increasing supply, primarily from Australia, Brazil, India, and China. In 2027–2028, there will also be a gradual geographic shift in demand for ore from China to India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and partly Europe. The development of the Simandou project in Guinea will have a significant impact on price conditions. Its reaching full capacity will provide about 5% of global production of high-grade ore (120 million tons). This, in the context of decarbonization of production, will deepen the price difference between high-grade and low-grade raw materials,” the NBU report says.

As for steel billets, the forecast prices for 2027 and 2028 are $522.1/t (+4.6% y/y) and $518/t (-0.8% y/y) (FOB Ukraine).

“Despite the increase in domestic production and the effect of protective measures, the EU will retain its status as a major global importer of steel and ore, which will help support the Ukrainian mining and metals sector in the medium term (for example, according to the results of 2025, Ukraine's share in ore imports to the EU was 16.9%). Demand for steel from the EU is expected to grow (by 2.3% year-on-year in 2027 after almost zero growth in the current year), in particular due to increased investment in defense and AI infrastructure,” say analysts at the National Bank.

Recall that in the second half of October, iron ore quotations remained under pressure, and since the middle of the month they had already fallen below $90/t. Specifically, on October 15, iron ore futures on the Singapore Exchange fell to $89.75/t (for the first time since September 2024), and during October 27 they declined to $89.25/t. The price of iron ore (KORE 62% Fe/Qingdao), according to Kallanish data, as of October 27 was $90.3/t CFR. Over the month (compared with August 25), it fell by 6.1%.