Gas prices in Europe continue to rise / photo ua.depositphotos.comNatural gas prices in Europe have surged. The German industry association Initiative Energien Speichern (Ines) has warned of a possible shortage of "blue fuel" this winter.
As Der Spiegel writes, gas storage facilities have recently had a "historically low level of fullness." In particular, German underground storage facilities were only 61% full.
In the event of an abnormally cold winter, Germany could face gas supply disruptions. According to the association's new model calculations, in January, February, and March 2027, the natural gas deficit could reach 6.6 terawatt-hours per month. This roughly corresponds to the volume of gas Germany consumes in a day and a half in winter.
At the same time, Germany's Federal Network Agency assesses the risk of a tense gas supply situation as low. It explains that thanks to additional import opportunities, the country is no longer directly dependent on achieving gas storage filling targets.
Ines also acknowledges that the probability of such a cold winter is low. Under normal or mild temperatures, no gas supply problems are expected.
However, on individual days in January with extremely low temperatures, the gas deficit could reach as much as 1.7 terawatt-hours. This is about 40% of Germany's average daily gas consumption in January 2026. For its calculations, the association used a scenario of an abnormally cold winter similar to the one in 2010.
In its calculations, Ines has already taken into account additional gas supplies from neighboring European countries, as well as the full use of available capacities at liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminals.
Meanwhile, gas prices in Europe continue to rise amid uncertainty over the prospects for ending the war with Iran and disruptions in energy supplies from the Middle East.
As Bloomberg reports, benchmark gas futures in Europe exceeded 85 euros per megawatt-hour. In particular, Dutch futures with the nearest delivery date, which serve as the European price benchmark, rose by 2.4% to 86.78 euros per megawatt-hour.
This winter, the gas supply situation in Europe will largely depend on how quickly gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored, particularly from Qatar, one of the world's largest exporters.
The war with Iran has effectively removed almost a fifth of global LNG exports from the market, forcing Europe to compete with Asia for limited supply volumes. Gas prices in both regions recently jumped to their highest level since 2022 — more than three times higher than at the beginning of the year.
Although prices have declined somewhat this month amid hopes for progress in peace negotiations, which intensified after the US midterm elections, they remain high due to limited supply on the market.
The gas situation in Europe