At the end of November, minority shareholders plan to sell 34% of their shares. The sellers intend to receive approximately 100 million US dollars for this package.

Actually, there is little official data on exactly which shareholders are selling their shares. However, experts claim that the "Privat" group of one of the richest domestic businessmen, Ihor Kolomoisky, wants to get rid of the shares. The "Halychyna" refinery was (although it is still not worth speaking of this in the past tense) the last oil refinery owned exclusively by Ukrainian capital, since it was jointly controlled by the "Privat" group, the "Continuum" group and the state. Although a quarter of the shares by no means allowed the state to exercise management at "Halychyna", which was the prerogative of "Continuum".

At present it is not known who exactly has shown interest and will buy the share package of the "Halychyna" refinery. However, a number of options can be foreseen.

It is quite possible that the state, represented by NAK "Naftogaz", will want to pay 100 million dollars for the share package, since for the creation of a vertically integrated oil company, a refinery of the "Halychyna" level would be quite useful. In addition, there is a possibility that they will be bought by the "Continuum" group or by Russian or other foreign companies. According to experts, such large companies as "Ukrnafta", "LUKoil" and "TNK-BP" are showing interest in the Drohobych enterprise.

While large-scale bidding is being planned around the plant, it is undergoing large-scale reconstruction. Production has practically been halted. Moreover, the refinery is not highly profitable, since the depth of oil refining there is far from European levels, so even after purchase, a potential investor will have to invest considerable funds in its modernization. Actually, all the plant's equipment requires major repairs.

As an oil market expert, editor of the "Oil and Gas" magazine Oleh Dorozhovets, commented to the newspaper, it is quite realistic that the "Continuum" group will want to buy the share of stocks in order to obtain a controlling package.

Russian investors, in Mr. Dorozhovets' opinion, are unlikely to be very interested in purchasing the plant, since it is not very investment-attractive - quite old, and its modernization requires a lot of funds. As for state structures, Mr. Dorozhovets is convinced that the likelihood of NAK "Naftogaz" being interested is not high. If the state does intend to form a vertically integrated oil company (VIOC), it would rather do so on the basis of the Kremenchuk refinery, not "Halychyna".

Let us return to recent history. Intentions to create a VIOC became more active during the last crisis connected with the sharp rise in fuel prices. True, these discussions have now somewhat subsided. Ideally, a VIOC would give the state the ability to control the fuel market and protect it from spontaneous price "overshooting". Of course, no one is talking about the possibility of selling gasoline at prices lower than world prices, but avoiding crises would be much easier.

According to People's Deputy Oleksa Hudyma, a member of the Committee on Fuel and Energy Complex, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety of the Verkhovna Rada, "now no one is talking about the VIOC idea anymore. Meanwhile, almost all of our oil refineries are under the control of Russian investors, and at least one should be left under state control." Therefore, Mr. Hudyma believes, the state has two models according to which it can act - although in each case it should be borne in mind that Mr. Kolomoisky and the "Privat" group have every right to sell the share package to anyone.

Actually, the shares can be sold either to French or German investors, which, in the parliamentarian's opinion, would be an almost optimal option, or to the same "Continuum" group. However, the "Privat" group can also "sell the shares to itself, that is, to 'Ukrnafta', which is actually under Mr. Kolomoisky's control," noted O. Hudyma. Although the formal owner of "Ukrnafta" is the state, which owns 50% plus one share of "Ukrnafta", nevertheless, the people's deputy is convinced, the state should appoint its own managers to "Ukrnafta", not "Privat" appointees.

The opinion of Mr. Hudyma's colleague on the commission, People's Deputy Stepan Havrysh, is somewhat different. He considers it entirely acceptable if the share package were bought by Russian companies that could properly modernize the plant. As Mr. Havrysh assumes, the "Privat" group intends to sell the plant because it is not sufficiently profitable: primarily it does not ensure sufficient depth of oil refining, and moreover it is designed to refine only Ukrainian URALS-class oil.

The idea of forming a VIOC, in Mr. Havrysh's opinion, is now being ignored. "Our government currently demonstrates only the ability to build presidential palaces, but not oil companies," Mr. Havrysh ironizes. And in general, the state's policy in the fuel and energy sector does not satisfy him.

Meanwhile, relations between Russian companies and our state in the oil and gas sphere have noticeably cooled over the past months. During the last oil crisis, already ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko accused Russian oil traders of cartel conspiracy, after which, in a strange way, the lion's share of Ukrainian refineries with Russian investments stopped for reconstruction. No less "warm" relations are with the gas workers and with the gas "disappeared" in Ukraine's underground gas storage facilities. Therefore, experts assume, Russian companies are unlikely to be very interested in buying "Halychyna" shares. Especially since the package is not a controlling one. And the Antimonopoly Committee recently tripped up Russian oil companies by recognizing "TNK-BP-Ukraine" and "Ukrtatnafta" as monopolists on the fuel market.

Viktoriya Bondarchuk