Expert poll: "What, in your opinion, are the personnel changes in the Presidential Secretariat connected with?"

President Yushchenko by his decrees appointed O. Zinchenko as an adviser to the President and dismissed 30 of his advisers from their duties, including S. Kunitsyn, S. Vakarchuk, A. Tretyakov, V. Ulyanchenko, V. Kaskiv.

In this connection, the Center for the Study of Political Values turned to experts with the question "What, in your opinion, are the personnel changes in the Presidential Secretariat connected with?"

Andriy YERMOLAYEV (president of the Center for Social Research "Sofia"): "I think it is logical to consider not the president's personnel decisions, but his motives. And if we consider it this way, then everything becomes more or less clear. The President has learned the lessons of the previous two years of unsuccessful personnel policy, when he tried to bet on a political team, but it turned out that most of his associates from the Maidan are people with career ambitions and they do not wish to be tied to the president, they think about their own personal achievements. And only the parliamentary crisis and the failure of the orange coalition's projects allowed the President to pull in people on whom he can make a personal calculation and who look not only like promising people, but also subordinate ones. That is precisely why the current Secretariat consists of post-Maidan politicians. That is, of those who, on the one hand, owe Yushchenko their career growth, and on the other hand, are not yet spun up in politics and therefore largely dependent on the President's position, his initiatives and proposals. Of course, this seriously irritates his former associates from the Maidan, but that's just the way it is... I think he will manage to create a manageable team that can be managed for the future. A team that will allow conducting more successful bargaining with any coalitions regarding the Government and prospective appointments. That is precisely what dictates the President's behavior. In fact, all subdivisions of the Secretariat are subordinated to this, and he has also built a new image of the Secretariat's leadership, so it is logical that this extends to such institutions as staff and freelance advisers. As for individual personnel appointments, of course the greatest surprise was caused by the appointment of Mr. Zinchenko and Baziv. But I think that here rather a certain lobbying of these figures by the new composition of the Secretariat manifested itself, which proceeds not from ideological considerations but from purely pragmatic ones: who can be useful. If with Baziv there are already some consequences, then with Zinchenko we have a situation where the Secretariat needs an effective manager-administrator and a specialist in information technologies, in which he has considerable work experience. On the other hand, it is clear that Zinchenko is unlikely to be able to return to public politics in the near future, because he suffered seriously from last year's events. But here there is a benefit for the Secretariat - there will be less publicity. And to sum up: the President by his personnel policy demonstrated that he is a pragmatist and to a certain extent a cynic in politics and now counts only on himself and those people who can be pulled in on personal dependence, that he intends to play big politics no longer looking back at previous political agreements. Just as he was once played behind his back, now he too is trying to do the same himself, regardless of the satisfaction of certain people."

Oles DONIY (head of the Center for the Study of Political Values):

"It is quite possible that Yushchenko has moved from forming a 'shadow Government' on the basis of the Secretariat to an even more strategic plan: a 'new political project.' The rotations in the Secretariat gave reason to say that Yushchenko has decided to create a real alternative to Yanukovych's Government, in fact to create a parallel Government, something like the Presidential administration headed by Medvedchuk in Kuchma's times. The Presidential Secretariat is already trying to pull onto itself the powers of the Cabinet, which by the way clearly goes beyond the constitutional field. At the same time, it turned out that it is precisely such active actions that appeal to the 'orange' electorate, which has missed confrontation with the Party of Regions and has become disappointed in the indefinite policy of 'Our Ukraine.' Thus the idea of creating a new political project on the basis of the President's new entourage has become probable. After all, for several months information had been circulating about Yushchenko's disappointment in the political prospects of 'Our Ukraine' and about the competition of influence groups for the right to spin up a new political brand. But it turned out that one need not bet on some external political project, but can try to construct it directly beside oneself - on the basis of the Secretariat and a group of advisers.

Then the selection of personnel for the President's new entourage also becomes understandable. The president's reserve personnel bench is small. The story with Baziv's appointment-dismissal only confirms this. Zinchenko is rather a symbol of the break with the 'old guard' of Our Ukraine. In addition, Zinchenko's relations with Tymoshenko also did not work out, which likewise allows the new project to be positioned more clearly. By the way, the urgent declaration of 'Our Ukraine' as 'oppositional' is not a confrontation with the Party of Regions. It is 'Our Ukraine's' struggle for the President. Bezsmertny and company, having felt that they are losing influence on the President, tried with their last strength to show that the party still has 'powder in its powder horns.'

Kost BONDARENKO (director of the Kyiv Institute of Management Problems named after Gorshenin): "They are connected, first, with the desire to optimize the work of the Secretariat, second, to turn it into an effective body for protecting interests and implementing the President's powers, third, accordingly to replace the structure of ineffective so-called 'dear friends' with new valuable cadres. Once, you know, in the Middle Ages, for example, in all European monarchies similar purges took place, when the sovereign - in Russia Ivan the Terrible, in England Henry VIII - replaced aristocrats - privileged 'princes of the blood' who were 'godsibs to the king,' in our terms corrupt 'dear friends' - with nobles who received their privileges for faithful service and feats of arms, in our terms pragmatists on whom bets were made. That is, Yushchenko gave preferences to orange 'nobles' as opposed to orange 'aristocrats.' This is a sort of new 'oprichnina' of Yushchenko in the form of the Secretariat."

Volodymyr FESENKO (chairman of the board of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta"): "First, I would not link the dismissal of some and the appointment of others, because in fact the entire institution of freelance advisers to the President was abolished. And here, whether by chance or not - it doesn't matter - there turned out to be interesting people, like Tretyakov or Lyapina, who have a connection to 'Our Ukraine.' Perhaps it is accidental. Although, who knows, perhaps it was used as a pretext for distancing the Secretariat and the President himself from NSNU. On the other hand, regarding Zinchenko's appointment, besides the fact that it is obviously the fulfillment of Mr. Oleksandr's own wishes, there is here an attempt again to use this appointment to distance the President from 'Our Ukraine,' to confirm his supra-party nature. But this leads to the emergence of a conflict field of relations between him and 'Our Ukraine.' I think this is not in the interests of the Head of State himself. He already has many problems at present and not many allies, which may weaken his position in parliament, and perhaps, worse, in society. There is as yet no new political project that would replace 'Our Ukraine.'"

Andriy OKARA (political scientist): "It has finally dawned on Yushchenko that whereas at first his friendship with the Party of Regions seemed to him some kind of miracle, a factor of Ukraine's unification, now power is being taken away from him in all directions. This is a global challenge to him as a politician and he has assessed the situation and begun to react. All these advisers did not give him any help, much less advantage. It is as Lukashenko says, that all of them need to be 'shaken out' periodically, that is, to do rotation, which is logical in this situation. All the more so since the institution of advisers turned out to be ineffective, corrupt, and all of them did not add any positivity to Yushchenko's image, but only took away, like that same Nemtsov. As for Zinchenko, he is known as a decent manager, a person whose interests are in various breakthrough strategies, information technologies, the defense industry, and so on. I also think that in time he will nevertheless climb to the public level and will be one of the biggest public politicians, because he, which is rare in Ukrainian politics, has something to say to the people, and then it will already be hard to stop him."