During November 16-22, exchange rate dynamics will largely depend on the overall security situation, the intensity of demand for foreign currency, and the National Bank's ability to neutralize possible imbalances. The dollar will be in the range of 45-45.7 UAH, and the euro – 50-52 UAH.
As Taras Liesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at "Globus Bank," told UNIAN, isolated fluctuations are possible, but they are unlikely to take on the characteristics of a systemic exchange rate jump. According to him, the war affects the currency market in two dimensions at once.
"The first is purely economic, when the destruction of enterprises, damage to energy facilities, and the reduction of production capabilities change business needs for foreign currency. The second is psychological, because each new wave of attacks increases citizens' uncertainty and prompts some of them to seek financial refuge in dollars or euros," the banker explains.
However, he emphasized that a distinction should be made between real economic needs and emotional demand. If a business buys currency to pay for necessary imports, then this is an objective economic process. Instead, purchasing dollars merely because of the emergence of a new exchange rate "record" may turn out to be a hasty decision that does not have sufficient financial justification. Especially dangerous are situations when individual currency exchange offices use public uncertainty to overstate the selling rate.
"A significant widening of the spread between the buying and selling of currency effectively shifts additional costs onto citizens. And if such a gap reaches 1-1.5 UAH, a hasty purchase could cost significantly more than the expected benefit of keeping savings in foreign currency," the banker warns.
At the same time, a different mechanism will operate on the interbank market. The National Bank will continue to compensate for the shortage of current currency supply through interventions. International financial support, which helps maintain budgetary and macroeconomic equilibrium, will also be of significant importance. Along with this, inflation processes and energy prices will influence currency expectations.
According to Lesovoy's forecast, by November 22 the currency exchange corridors will be 45-45.7 UAH/USD and 50-52 UAH/EUR on the interbank market and 45-45.7 UAH/USD and 50-52 UAH/EUR on the cash market.
Graduated from Kyiv State Economic University in 1998 with a degree in "Finance and Credit". Master of Economic Sciences.
Has almost 30 years of experience in the banking sector. In particular, worked at such banking institutions: Bank "Ukraine" (1998-2000), "National Investments" (2000-2005), "Ukrgasbank" (2005-2009, 2010-2014), "Globus" (2009-2010, 2015 - to present).
In Ukrainian currency exchanges, the average dollar exchange rate on November 12 is 46.25 UAH/USD, and one can sell a dollar at the rate of 46.07 hryvnias. The cash euro exchange rate in currency exchanges today is 51.52 UAH/euro, and the selling rate is 51.20 UAH/euro.
The dollar exchange rate at "PrivatBank" decreased by 15 kopecks and stands at 45.95 hryvnias per dollar. The euro exchange rate at the bank today fell by 30 kopecks and amounts to 51.45 hryvnias per euro.